Asian economic outlook dim for 1999: Poll

Asian economic outlook dim for 1999: Poll

SINGAPORE (Reuters): The economic outlook for some of Asia's
distressed economies worsened markedly in the past few months, a
Reuters poll of more than 100 economists shows.

Analysts have slashed estimates for 1999 gross domestic
product growth in Hong Kong, Malaysia and Indonesia, all of which
are now expected to show another year of contraction.

And some of the regional economies that have avoided the worst
of the Asian crisis -- China, Taiwan, New Zealand and India --
will show less growth next year than analysts expected in the
previous Reuters Asia GDP poll, conducted in September.

But the outlook has improved in some of the region's most
important economies -- Australia, Singapore and especially South
Korea. The Philippines, too, is looking much better than it did
three months ago.

Hong Kong is estimated to have lost 5.2 percent of its economy
this year and will lose a further 2.2 percent next year,
according to the average of economists' forecasts.

Each of those forecasts is half a percentage point worse than
the corresponding September outlook.

Malaysia's circumstances have become seriously worse. With GDP
expected to show a 6.3 percent contraction in 1998 and another of
0.4 percent in 1999, Malaysia's recession is now seen deeper and
longer than before.

The outlook has deteriorated by more than a percentage point
in both years.

And while estimates for Indonesia's 1998 GDP have stabilized
-- the contraction is now seen at 14.8 percent -- 1999 is now
seen much worse, with a further GDP fall of 5.8 percent forecast.

None of the economists who estimated China's GDP growth
expected that country to meet the 8.0 percent 1998 forecast that
Beijing has nailed to the wall.

But the average analysts' expectation, 7.6 percent, is only a
little lower, although the outlook for 1999 growth has been pared
to 7.8 percent.

South Korea is showing the most spectacular improvement in
economists' forecasts -- the level of GDP in 1999 is now seen
only 0.6 percent lower than in 1998, compared with the severe 1.8
percent slump seen three months ago.

Even the disastrous picture for South Korea's 1998 GDP has
lightened a little, with analysts forecasting a 6.5 percent drop,
compared with the previous outlook of 6.9 percent.

Australia's economy, seemingly impervious to the mess to its
north, grew five percent during the year to the third quarter,
prompting analysts to upgrade their forecasts for GDP for the
fiscal year to June 1999.

GDP for 1998/99 is now seen 3.4 percent higher than the
previous full year's, compared with 2.5 percent growth seen a few
months ago.

But the poll shows that Taiwan's economy, which also shows no
signs of recession, will perform a little less spectacularly than
previously expected next year as it posts 4.95 percent growth.

Forecasts for Japan were unavailable.

Economists' average forecasts for 1998 and 1999 GDP growth,
compared with September forecasts in brackets (percent change on
previous full year):

1998 1999

Australia 3.4 (2.5) 2.5 (2.9)

China 7.6 (7.2) 7.8 (8.2)

Hong Kong -5.2 (-4.7) -2.2 (-1.7)

India 4.8 (5.0) 5.1 (5.6)

Indonesia -14.8 (-14.8) -5.8 (-3.3)

Malaysia -6.3 (-5.1) -0.4 (0.7)

New Zealand -0.7 (0.2) 2.1 (2.6)

Philippines 0.0 (-0.4) 1.2 (0.5)

Singapore 0.9 (0.2) 0.5 (0.1)

South Korea -6.5 (-6.9) -0.6 (-1.8)

Sri Lanka 5.0 (5.1) 5.1 (5.3)

Taiwan 5.0 (4.9) 5.0 (5.2)

Thailand -8.3 (-7.9) 0.4 (0.2)

NOTE: For Australia and India, the figures refer to fiscal years
-- 1998/99 and 1999/2000.