Asia-Pacific may lose up to 12 million tourists
Asia-Pacific may lose up to 12 million tourists
MANILA (AFP): Asia-Pacific tourist spots can wave goodbye to
up to 12 million tourists annually over the next three years amid
the regional economic crisis, a World Tourism Organization (WTO)
official predicted here yesterday.
A WTO survey projected that between 10 and 12 million
potential tourists would stay away from the region each year due
to the crisis, deputy secretary-general David de Villiers said at
a Pacific Asia Travel Association conference.
De Villiers said tourist arrivals in the region would grow
only 5.5 percent over three years to 104 million by 2000, down
from the organization's original forecast of between nine and 12
percent growth.
Tourism in the Asia-Pacific suffered "its worst year ever"
with only 1.1 percent growth in 1997, a sharp reversal from the
double-digit growth that the region used to enjoy in the past
decade, the WTO said.
Declines varied from country to country. Hong Kong suffered
the biggest fall with 11.1 percent decline in tourist arrivals in
1997 followed by Singapore with a one percent decline.
Traditionally, 80 percent of tourist arrivals in the Asia-
Pacific were from other countries in the region, but their
numbers were likely to fall due to weaker currencies, De Villiers
said.
Intra-regional tourist arrivals might even post zero growth in
1998, he warned, although he forecast "substantial improvement"
in 1999 and 2000.
On the bright side, he said "long-haul" tourism from Europe
and North America was likely to increase as tourists from those
areas sought bargains in a post-devaluation Asia.
Tourist arrivals from Europe and North America were forecast
to grow by 15 and 12.5 percent respectively in 1998, De Villiers
said with growth rates moderating in 1999 and 2000.
Countries in the region expected the financial crisis to last
for three years and are forecasting a sharp rebound after that.
"Tourism will be one of the first industries to fully revive,"
he said.
In order to cope with the crisis, De Villiers said Asia-
Pacific nations should focus on trying to attract long-haul
tourists although they should not ignore intra-regional tourism
either.
But he also warned that destabilizing events in one country
could also scare foreign tourists away.
Delegates attending the Pacific Asia Travel Association
conference also warned of other developments that might
complicate the regional crisis such as a possible devaluation in
China and a prolonged recession in Japan.
John Morse, managing director of the Australian Tourism
Commission, admitted the "spectacular growth of tourist (visits)
to Australia had come to a halt."
Australia was trying to look at the industry in new ways and
were targeting countries they had not focused on in the past like
China and India, he said.
Peter Henze, chief executive officer of Creative Leisure
International USA, said the tourism industry should focus on
educating the affluent sectors of the developed nations about the
attractions in Asia-Pacific.
But bad press scared away tourists from Asian countries, said
Douglas Gautier, deputy executive director of the Hong Kong
Tourist Association, admitting "we have a PR (public relations)
job to do."
His comments came as Indonesia is planning to reduce its 1998
tourist arrivals target of between six and 6.5 million amid bad
press abroad.
Indonesian tourism director general Andi Mappisammeng said
such reports meant tourist arrivals growth was only 0.6 percent,
compared to double-digit increases over the previous 15 years.
He did not elaborate but officials have blamed widespread
publicity about forest fires and the haze they caused across
parts of southeast Asia for the slow growth in foreign tourist
arrivals.