Asia-Pacific may lose up to 12 million tourists
Asia-Pacific may lose up to 12 million tourists
MANILA (AFP): Asia-Pacific tourist spots can wave goodbye to up to 12 million tourists annually over the next three years amid the regional economic crisis, a World Tourism Organization (WTO) official predicted here yesterday.
A WTO survey projected that between 10 and 12 million potential tourists would stay away from the region each year due to the crisis, deputy secretary-general David de Villiers said at a Pacific Asia Travel Association conference.
De Villiers said tourist arrivals in the region would grow only 5.5 percent over three years to 104 million by 2000, down from the organization's original forecast of between nine and 12 percent growth.
Tourism in the Asia-Pacific suffered "its worst year ever" with only 1.1 percent growth in 1997, a sharp reversal from the double-digit growth that the region used to enjoy in the past decade, the WTO said.
Declines varied from country to country. Hong Kong suffered the biggest fall with 11.1 percent decline in tourist arrivals in 1997 followed by Singapore with a one percent decline.
Traditionally, 80 percent of tourist arrivals in the Asia- Pacific were from other countries in the region, but their numbers were likely to fall due to weaker currencies, De Villiers said.
Intra-regional tourist arrivals might even post zero growth in 1998, he warned, although he forecast "substantial improvement" in 1999 and 2000.
On the bright side, he said "long-haul" tourism from Europe and North America was likely to increase as tourists from those areas sought bargains in a post-devaluation Asia.
Tourist arrivals from Europe and North America were forecast to grow by 15 and 12.5 percent respectively in 1998, De Villiers said with growth rates moderating in 1999 and 2000.
Countries in the region expected the financial crisis to last for three years and are forecasting a sharp rebound after that.
"Tourism will be one of the first industries to fully revive," he said.
In order to cope with the crisis, De Villiers said Asia- Pacific nations should focus on trying to attract long-haul tourists although they should not ignore intra-regional tourism either.
But he also warned that destabilizing events in one country could also scare foreign tourists away.
Delegates attending the Pacific Asia Travel Association conference also warned of other developments that might complicate the regional crisis such as a possible devaluation in China and a prolonged recession in Japan.
John Morse, managing director of the Australian Tourism Commission, admitted the "spectacular growth of tourist (visits) to Australia had come to a halt."
Australia was trying to look at the industry in new ways and were targeting countries they had not focused on in the past like China and India, he said.
Peter Henze, chief executive officer of Creative Leisure International USA, said the tourism industry should focus on educating the affluent sectors of the developed nations about the attractions in Asia-Pacific.
But bad press scared away tourists from Asian countries, said Douglas Gautier, deputy executive director of the Hong Kong Tourist Association, admitting "we have a PR (public relations) job to do."
His comments came as Indonesia is planning to reduce its 1998 tourist arrivals target of between six and 6.5 million amid bad press abroad.
Indonesian tourism director general Andi Mappisammeng said such reports meant tourist arrivals growth was only 0.6 percent, compared to double-digit increases over the previous 15 years.
He did not elaborate but officials have blamed widespread publicity about forest fires and the haze they caused across parts of southeast Asia for the slow growth in foreign tourist arrivals.