ASEAN to gain if India-China energy partnership succeeds
ASEAN to gain if India-China energy partnership succeeds
Agence France-Presse Singapore
Southeast Asia stands to gain if regional powerhouses India and China succeed in jointly securing long-term energy supplies to fuel their fast-growing economies, analysts said.
The two former rivals are now key trading partners of Southeast Asia and if they can work together to ensure their energy needs are met, it will mean a continuation of the sizzling growth that has benefited the region, they said.
"We in Southeast Asia would certainly like to see the continuous growth in China and India," said Rodolfo Severino, the former secretary-general of the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations.
"If they are able to resolve their concerns over energy, then that means their rapid growth will continue, which is good for the region," he told AFP by telephone.
China and India plan to sign pacts in November aimed at teaming up to bid for oil and gas projects, the latest signal yet that ties are improving after a history of hostility which saw the neighbors fight a brief border war in 1962.
The two neighbors had been vying for scarce energy resources around the world with Beijing winning the latest bout when China National Petroleum Corp. outbid India's Oil and Natural Gas Corp. for Kazakhstan's third-largest oil producer, PetroKazakhstan.
Both countries are keen to ensure there is enough oil to power their rapidly growing economies. Demand from China and India is one of the reasons behind the sharp rise in crude prices over the last two years, according to oil dealers.
Cooperation between the two Asian giants in securing energy supplies can only be favorable for Southeast Asia, said Hugh White, a professor of strategic studies at the Australian National University in Canberra.
"Obviously for both countries, the search for energy security is going to be one of the key drivers for their strategic policies," White told AFP.
"If that search for energy security is mishandled, it could lead to significant insecurity and it is particularly important for Southeast Asia.
"It is the part of the world in which the spheres of interest of the two countries most naturally overlap and is also potentially a significant source of energy itself," he said, adding that Southeast Asia is also a crucial transit area for oil shipments.
The narrow 960-kilometer long Malacca Strait in Southeast Asian waters is one of the world's busiest trading routes, used by about 50,000 ships a year carrying a third of global trade and half its oil supplies.
The ADB cut its GDP forecast for Southeast Asia to 5.0 percent in 2005 due to poor harvests in the Philippines and Thailand, a cyclical downturn in the global electronics sector and higher oil prices.