ASEAN struggles for stability as Indonesia simmers

ASEAN struggles for stability as Indonesia simmers

HANOI (Reuters): Southeast Asian foreign ministers stressed
the need for stability on Monday as political turmoil in
Indonesia cast a shadow over their annual gathering and raised
the specter of fresh regional upheaval.

The Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) had hoped
to use a week-long series of meetings in Hanoi to rebuild
credibility and confidence amid a fresh economic downturn, but
this ambition was scuppered by dramatic developments in its
largest and most populous member.

A majority of legislators of Indonesia's top assembly voted to
sack President Abdurrahman Wahid for misrule on Monday and
replaced him with Vice President Megawati Sukarnoputri.

ASEAN big guns Singapore and Thailand quickly congratulated
Megawati, but the whole region was waiting anxiously to see
whether a violent showdown could be avoided.

Wahid, who has tens of thousands of fanatical Muslim
supporters, earlier made clear he would not go without a fight.
He compared his struggle to a holy war, or jihad, raising the
specter of chaos that could destabilize the entire region.

"It is a concern for all of us because Indonesia is an
important member of ASEAN. Anything that happens in Indonesia can
affect the stability of other countries in the region," Malaysian
Foreign Minister Syed Hamid Albar told reporters in Hanoi.

Thai Foreign Minister Surakiart Sathirathai said Indonesia's
problems had been informally discussed at the Hanoi meeting, but
ASEAN's code of non-interference in the affairs of other members
meant there would be no formal statement or intervention.

"But I think it is a very positive development for ASEAN that
we discussed internal problems...because the situation has an
impact on other countries also," he said.

Transition

"We give all our support to the people of Indonesia and we
hope that whatever transition should be peaceful. We still hope
the problems can be resolved peacefully and democratically."

Indonesian Foreign Minister Alwi Shihab canceled his
attendance at the Hanoi meetings, another blow to host Vietnam
after North Korea said last week its foreign minister would not
attend, dashing hopes of a resumption of high-level talks with
the United States and South Korea.

The discussions will be joined on Tuesday by regional big-
hitters China, Japan and South Korea, and then on Wednesday by
dialogue partners in the 23-member ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF),
Asia's key security grouping.

The latter meeting will be attended by U.S. Secretary of State
Colin Powell, who arrives on Tuesday for his first trip to the
country since he served in the Vietnam War.

In an opening address to the ministers' meeting, Vietnam's
Prime Minister Phan Van Khai made no mention of Indonesia but
said the 1997-1998 Asian economic collapse showed the costs of
political and macroeconomic instability.

"We should proactively settle remaining disputes and
differences and prevent heightened tensions in the region, and at
the same time help to restore and maintain socio-political and
macro-economic stability in each country," he said.

But the upheavals in Indonesia illustrated precisely why so
many foreign investors still shun the region, and dealt a fresh
blow to ASEAN as it struggles to build unity and purpose while
hobbled by disagreements and declining economic clout and
increasingly overshadowed by giant neighbor China.

Pushed into the background at Monday's meeting was the
ministers' endorsement of a declaration Vietnam has pushed
pledging to narrow the gap between richer members and poorer
nations like communist Vietnam and Laos, Cambodia and military-
ruled Myanmar.

With even ASEAN's richer nations facing renewed economic
malaise and most of the region facing sharply slower growth,
analysts question whether the bloc is in any position to help
poorer members catch up.

Singapore's Foreign Minister S. Jayakumar warned ASEAN must
work to remain relevant in an increasingly globalised economy and
risked losing investment with so much instability.

"If ASEAN is inward looking, then I am afraid that the world
will pass us by," he told reporters

Surakiart said the ASEAN Regional Forum meeting on Wednesday
would discuss "preventive diplomacy" to defuse regional
conflicts. But the list of divisions and disagreements is a long
one.

China is in dispute with several ASEAN states over islands in
the South China Sea, and with Tokyo over trade, while a Japanese
history textbook has incensed China and South Korea who say it
distorts wartime atrocities.