ASEAN retains some control over APEC's direction

By Endy Bayuni

JAKARTA (JP): The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is retaining some influence over the direction the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum is taking, but it may eventually have to give up that privilege if the forum continues to expand its membership.

ASEAN, established in 1967, helped found APEC in 1989 despite apprehensions that the forum might weaken its own existence, or replace some of its programs it had painstakingly built over the years, such as its annual dialog with its major trading partners.

The six ASEAN members -- Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand -- agreed to support APEC after gaining a number of assurances. These include the fact that ASEAN's existence within APEC is recognized, that APEC's decisions are not binding, and that any move to institutionalize APEC must be conducted in phases and in a pragmatic manner.

The other six original APEC members -- the United States, Canada, Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand -- also threw in a number of concessions for ASEAN for good measure. One is that the APEC's leadership, and the right to host the APEC annual meeting, goes to an ASEAN country every other year. Another is what the APEC members have come to regard as the "ASEAN way of doing things" -- that any decision must be made by consensus, meaning that it has to have the support of all the members, not by a simple majority the West is more accustomed to. This virtually ensures that APEC moves slowly, or only as fast as all the members are prepared for it to.

But that was five years ago.

Since then APEC's membership has expanded to 18 -- with the inclusion of China, Hong Kong, Chinese Taipei, Mexico, Papua New Guinea and Chile -- and it might be too much for ASEAN to still insist on chairing the forum every other year.

After Indonesia this year, the baton will be passed to Japan in January and then to the Philippines in 1996. Before Indonesia, Singapore and Thailand from ASEAN have chaired APEC, and among non-ASEAN countries, Australia, South Korea and the United States have had the privilege.

In a recent television interview, Minister of Foreign Affairs Ali Alatas, when asked to comment on the prospect of ASEAN losing its right to lead the forum, pointed out that not all ASEAN countries have chaired APEC.

Although the membership of ASEAN countries within APEC is still on an individual basis, ASEAN remains a coherence voice within the forum.

"Of course there are nuances, but ASEAN remains solid," Alatas said in the APEC discussion aired by the ANteve last Sunday.

Now with talks within APEC about the establishment of a free trade area and about the move to further institutionalize the forum, ASEAN's unity is being tested once again.

Indonesian officials said the ASEAN ministers, as has been the tradition, are scheduled to have their own informal meeting before the APEC ministerial conference gets underway on Friday.

Officials said ASEAN will also continue to push with its idea of establishing the East Asian Economic Caucus (EAEC), grouping Asian countries within APEC although the idea has been opposed by the United States, and Japan, which ASEAN is counting on to become a member, has not given any firm response.

For Indonesia, and for the other ASEAN countries and other developing countries for that matter, its participation in APEC is seen as a way of countering or neutralizing the tendency for the big economic powers to try to dominate its economy.

Alatas, during the same television program, pointed out that the United States and Japan would try to dominate the ASEAN economies anyway "with or without APEC".

Through the multilateral forum provided by APEC, the developing countries can neutralize or counter this tendency to dominate, something that is impossible to do on a bilateral basis, so the argument goes.

Observers said however that with the expanding APEC membership, ASEAN would eventually lose some, but not all, influence over APEC's future.

It is just as well that APEC in 1993 declared a three-year moratorium on new members while it reviews the criteria for membership of what now becomes an exclusive grouping, at least as seen by outsiders.

A number of other countries are already knocking on APEC's doors. Russia and Vietnam now feel they qualify to be part of the elite group given that their economies are now "interacting" more actively with the rest of the region. On the other side of the Pacific, Peru is also keen in jumping on the APEC bandwagon.

Brazil and Argentina have also expressed an interest although they are unlikely to be accepted because their shores are not on the Pacific Ocean.

Similarly, India's request to join has been turned down for geographical reasons. Only Asian countries with shores on the Pacific qualify. But Indonesia and a number of other countries have been pondering the establishment of an Indian Ocean economic cooperation forum, and the prospect has been enhanced now with the opening up of South Africa.