ASEAN On the Comeback Trail

ASEAN On the Comeback Trail or ASEAN Ready for its Close-up

By Hadi Soesastro, Executive Director of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies in Jakarta

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is like a onetime child star returning to the stage. It was once highly popular, but after its successful run, it assumed the role of the also-ran. It often missed performances due to mismanagement, or from simply being out of sorts. It could no longer find proper roles to play. The shows became routine, and it gradually began to fade from view. That was pretty much the story of ASEAN from 1976 to 1997. ASEAN is now making a comeback as a more mature performer. It has been thrust back to center stage, perhaps by accident. Yet, it will have to learn to grow in its new roles and perform superbly because it is sharing the stage with other attractive figures. This is a critical time for ASEAN. It has been given a chance to perform again, and it must not miss the opportunity. Here is the story of this performer, told in almost telegraphic fashion. ASEAN came into being in 1967 at the height of the Vietnam War. It took the grouping almost a decade to get its act together. ASEAN's establishment was politically motivated: In a way it was a strategic imperative for the five original members of ASEAN to bond together. They had one, peaceful and prosperous Southeast Asia as the objective. They knew they had to form a cohesive union to master their own destiny. It was at the first ASEAN Summit in Bali in 1976 that it began to lay down the scenario. It was clearly spelled out that regional cohesion was to be achieved through economic cooperation. In the years that followed, many initiatives for economic cooperation were launched. These include the ASEAN Industrial Projects (AIP), the ASEAN Preferential Trading Arrangement (PTA), the ASEAN Industrial Complementation Scheme (AIC), the ASEAN Industrial Joint Ventures (AIJV), and many others, producing a list of abbreviations that are hard to recollect. They were all disappointing. They had less problems when they had to pool their resources together, but they were unwilling to share their markets with each other. Yet, the region's economies were growing remarkably. ASEAN economies belong to the hyper- growth economies -- the economic miracles -- in a bid to become the ASEAN tigers. It was not the ASEAN economic projects that contributed to this success. It was the overall regional environment, which improved significantly under ASEAN's management of confidence-building and conflict prevention. It was ASEAN's political cooperation that gained the association its reputation internationally. It became a diplomatic force in the international arena, through building regional resilience. It succeeded in resolving or managing various regional conflicts, both small ones and major ones like the Cambodian conflict. ASEAN also became one of the major architects of Asia Pacific regional community building. It developed an array of dialogs with major players in the world, including the European Community (now the EU), Japan, and the United States. The annual meetings of ASEAN foreign ministers with their counterparts from the dialog countries, known as Post-Ministerial Conferences (PMCs), became the first important forum in the region. They were the embryo for Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) and the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF), the two important multilateral processes in Asia Pacific. ASEAN also initiated such inter-regional processes as ASEM, the Asia Europe Meeting. With this regional vibrancy and political stability, it was only natural that foreign investments poured into the region. ASEAN became an attractive production and economic platform for the world. In 1992, in view of the rapid changes regionally as well as globally, ASEAN understood that it had to transform itself by making headway toward economic integration. It launched the ASEAN Free Trade Area (AFTA), that became was the association's hallmark. It was an experiment for the region, and it was a challenge worth taking. ASEAN was basking in the spotlight. It's all history now. It unraveled when the economic crisis battered the region in 1997, at the same time ASEAN was completing its long-term project to realize One Southeast Asia, with Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Vietnam becoming members. Perhaps the difficulty of absorbing the new members was not only due to the region's economic difficulties. The organization became too big too fast. It has too many meetings in a year, but it has a serious deficit in institutions. The ASEAN Secretariat continues to act as an office and is not being elevated into taking a major role in the management of regional affairs. ASEAN members continue to cling to their old-fashioned "sovereignty" dressing gown. In the meantime, it almost disappeared from the international radar screen. Various ASEAN countries, particularly Indonesia, faced serious domestic problems, leading to a further deterioration in the region's attractiveness, economically as well as politically. Still, life has its surprises. It is perhaps by accident that ASEAN has returned to the spotlight, beginning as a cautious, low profile event. ASEAN invited its three main Northeast Asian neighbors, China, Japan and Korea to its annual gatherings. It started out as informal meetings over lunches and dinners. First among the foreign ministers, followed by the heads of states. The ASEAN Plus Three (APT) process was born, and APT Summits become an annual affair. Many new initiatives have been launched, including the proposal for an East Asian Community. But it is the ASEAN-China Free Trade Area (FTA) proposal that may change the course of history for the association. The Chinese leadership came up with the proposal, and ASEAN was unprepared but went along. Without doing its homework, ASEAN signed a major agreement with China in November 2002, only two years after the idea was first mooted officially and an unprecedented development. The ASEAN-China Framework Agreement on Closer Economic Cooperation is the first of its kind for ASEAN as well as for China. It is undoubtedly politically motivated. Having entered the World Trade Organization (WTO), China's access to world markets increased significantly. This may pose a threat to ASEAN. Thus, China offered to open its huge market to ASEAN through a FTA arrangement. The development upset Japan, which also wants to have a major agreement with ASEAN. India followed suit, and the United States has come up with its Enterprise for ASEAN Initiative. All these initiatives have a FTA component. The performer has been brought back to center stage, with many vying for its talents and a new scenario about to be written. But how will it hold up under pressure? ASEAN must take its new role seriously. It has to get its act together, which means it must be willing to make a political commitment to deepen and accelerate its economic integration. Otherwise, it will not be able to gain from its new ventures with its main partners. The idea of an ASEAN Economic Community was aired at the last ASEAN Summit, the prescription for deeper economic integration through making ASEAN an integrated market. It does not matter by what name it is called -- a single market or a common market - because the objective is to grow out of the fragmented regional markets. It is the only way that ASEAN can meet the challenge of global competition. It is the way to survive and thrive in a globalized world. It is not good enough for the performer to stick to its old routine, but it must be willing to adapt with the times. Perhaps history can repeat itself. The ASEAN Summit in 2003 will be held in Bali once again. Will it be the beginning of a new era for ASEAN? The Indonesian host will have to direct the region in that direction. It is too big a task to be left to the government, and it will be up to all of us to provide support.

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