ASEAN must take a more proactive approach

ASEAN must take a more proactive approach

By Bilson Kurus

If ASEAN does not take a more proactive approach to
international affairs, it faces a difficult future.

If there is to be a concise phrase which would arguably serve
both as a critique of and a challenge for ASEAN as it heads
towards the 21st century, it must be: "Lead, follow or
get out of the way". Too strong a statement perhaps, but fitting
nonetheless.

Since its inception in 1967, the performance of ASEAN as a
regional organization can best be described as that of a follower
or, perhaps a better term, a reactor. Notwithstanding glowing
accolades of it as a shining example of Third World cooperation,
one would be hard pressed to find instances where ASEAN had taken
steps or measures ahead of or in anticipation of disruptive
developments. Its successes in the diplomatic and political
arena, have by and large been the result of its reactions to
sometimes traumatic events that posed real and potential
challenges to the association's and its individual members' well-
being.

Consider what is commonly viewed as the single most unifying
factor of ASEAN in the 1980s -- the Cambodian conflict. ASEAN's
cohesion vis-a-vis Vietnam (now a fellow member) materialized
after the latter invaded Cambodia. Even then, the unity of the
members was tested and even frayed on more than one occasion as
the member states reacted in a manner consistent with their
respective perceptions of national interest.

A more current example is ASEAN's off-again-on-again approach
to its publicly stated goal of engendering closer intra-ASEAN
economic relations. The ASEAN Free Trade Agreement (AFTA),
ASEAN's most promising economic initiative to date, illustrates
the proclivity of ASEAN to react to external impetuses, rather
than generating its own internal momentum. ASEAN's recent about-
turn on the implementation period for AFTA only too clearly
illustrates the appearance of ASEAN as an organization that
seemingly depends on external stimuli to direct its course.

No doubt, an argument can and will be made that it is
precisely this lack of a structured approach which has helped to
ensure the viability and utility of ASEAN to its member states.
That to have done otherwise is not only impractical but, more
important, asking too much of an organization that has to find an
optimum balance gradually, while in a sea of embedded
differences.

Be that as it may, herein lies ASEAN's challenge. Will ASEAN
continue to be well served by its wait and respond approach? Will
this modus operandi remain relevant and viable in the uncertain
future that will be the 21st century?

Whether these questions are answered is a moot point. Whatever
it is, the evolving regional and global environments will most
likely concrete the contextual imperatives of these questions.
The real issue is where will ASEAN then stand?

The likely scenarios are certainly complex and wide open to
conjecture. Still, "lead, follow or get out of the way" is one
phrase that perhaps best captures the range of possibilities.
ASEAN can either take bold steps towards shaping its own destiny,
continue to react to external impetuses, or fade into the
background of organizational irrelevance.

The first scenario will require ASEAN to take the lead in
initiatives that shape its viability and destiny instead of
perpetually reacting and responding to external events and
impetuses. Among other things, this will mean ASEAN member states
needing to be more assertive in their collective role to pilot,
or at least co-pilot, the destiny of Southeast Asia in
particular, and the Asia-Pacific in general. The fact that all 10
Southeast Asian countries will soon be part of the ASEAN family
only serves to underline both the urgency and dynamics of this
challenge.

This would, of course, mean that ASEAN as an organization
becomes more professional, streamlined and structured. In this
respect, the member states need not turn to the vague ideals of
regional integration for inspiration. A realization that their
collective, and more important, individual national well-beings
will depend on continued peace and stability in the region,
should be reason enough.

The second scenario is obviously for ASEAN to maintain the
status quo. It can remain in a perpetual mode of reacting and
responding to external events impacting on the regional order. If
it chooses to stay with this course, then ASEAN may have to come
to terms with continually having to make decisions quickly in a
dynamic regional and global environment. Unfortunately, with its
current approach of muddling through in sorting out differences
and arriving at mutually agreed positions, ASEAN runs the real
danger of being overtaken by developments beyond its control.

There is, of course, a third scenario -- "to get out of the
way". In this instance, ASEAN might slowly become irrelevant and
eventually cease to function in any meaningful manner. A series
of failures or indecisiveness could conceivably bring ASEAN to
this state as the slow but continual breach to its cohesiveness
and unity ultimately leads individual members to go it alone, or
to look elsewhere for answers to their problems and national
aspirations. ASEAN may go this course if it chooses to remain
within its own cocoon and watches the world go by.

While this scenario is certainly an extreme one, it is not
entirely farfetched. If ASEAN fails to respond appropriately or
satisfactorily to the countervailing current of diverging
national interests amidst the continuous dynamics of an ever-
changing regional and global reality, then its cocoon of
familiarity could turn out to be its vehicle to irrelevance.

These scenarios certainly do not need to be. ASEAN need not be
locked into any one particular eventuality and, it would be
premature and indeed unwise to ascribe death to an organization
that has essentiality stood the test of time. Still, a changing
regional and global environment is a double-edged sword: It can
either serve as an obstacle or as a new opportunity for ASEAN to
define itself to its member states and the world. That is the
challenge for ASEAN as it moves towards the new millennium.

Dr. Bilson Kurus is a Visiting Research Associate with the
Institute for Development Studies, Sabah, Malaysia.