ASEAN must take a more proactive approach

ASEAN must take a more proactive approach

By Bilson Kurus

If ASEAN does not take a more proactive approach to international affairs, it faces a difficult future.

If there is to be a concise phrase which would arguably serve both as a critique of and a challenge for ASEAN as it heads towards the 21st century, it must be: "Lead, follow or get out of the way". Too strong a statement perhaps, but fitting nonetheless.

Since its inception in 1967, the performance of ASEAN as a regional organization can best be described as that of a follower or, perhaps a better term, a reactor. Notwithstanding glowing accolades of it as a shining example of Third World cooperation, one would be hard pressed to find instances where ASEAN had taken steps or measures ahead of or in anticipation of disruptive developments. Its successes in the diplomatic and political arena, have by and large been the result of its reactions to sometimes traumatic events that posed real and potential challenges to the association's and its individual members' well- being.

Consider what is commonly viewed as the single most unifying factor of ASEAN in the 1980s -- the Cambodian conflict. ASEAN's cohesion vis-a-vis Vietnam (now a fellow member) materialized after the latter invaded Cambodia. Even then, the unity of the members was tested and even frayed on more than one occasion as the member states reacted in a manner consistent with their respective perceptions of national interest.

A more current example is ASEAN's off-again-on-again approach to its publicly stated goal of engendering closer intra-ASEAN economic relations. The ASEAN Free Trade Agreement (AFTA), ASEAN's most promising economic initiative to date, illustrates the proclivity of ASEAN to react to external impetuses, rather than generating its own internal momentum. ASEAN's recent about- turn on the implementation period for AFTA only too clearly illustrates the appearance of ASEAN as an organization that seemingly depends on external stimuli to direct its course.

No doubt, an argument can and will be made that it is precisely this lack of a structured approach which has helped to ensure the viability and utility of ASEAN to its member states. That to have done otherwise is not only impractical but, more important, asking too much of an organization that has to find an optimum balance gradually, while in a sea of embedded differences.

Be that as it may, herein lies ASEAN's challenge. Will ASEAN continue to be well served by its wait and respond approach? Will this modus operandi remain relevant and viable in the uncertain future that will be the 21st century?

Whether these questions are answered is a moot point. Whatever it is, the evolving regional and global environments will most likely concrete the contextual imperatives of these questions. The real issue is where will ASEAN then stand?

The likely scenarios are certainly complex and wide open to conjecture. Still, "lead, follow or get out of the way" is one phrase that perhaps best captures the range of possibilities. ASEAN can either take bold steps towards shaping its own destiny, continue to react to external impetuses, or fade into the background of organizational irrelevance.

The first scenario will require ASEAN to take the lead in initiatives that shape its viability and destiny instead of perpetually reacting and responding to external events and impetuses. Among other things, this will mean ASEAN member states needing to be more assertive in their collective role to pilot, or at least co-pilot, the destiny of Southeast Asia in particular, and the Asia-Pacific in general. The fact that all 10 Southeast Asian countries will soon be part of the ASEAN family only serves to underline both the urgency and dynamics of this challenge.

This would, of course, mean that ASEAN as an organization becomes more professional, streamlined and structured. In this respect, the member states need not turn to the vague ideals of regional integration for inspiration. A realization that their collective, and more important, individual national well-beings will depend on continued peace and stability in the region, should be reason enough.

The second scenario is obviously for ASEAN to maintain the status quo. It can remain in a perpetual mode of reacting and responding to external events impacting on the regional order. If it chooses to stay with this course, then ASEAN may have to come to terms with continually having to make decisions quickly in a dynamic regional and global environment. Unfortunately, with its current approach of muddling through in sorting out differences and arriving at mutually agreed positions, ASEAN runs the real danger of being overtaken by developments beyond its control.

There is, of course, a third scenario -- "to get out of the way". In this instance, ASEAN might slowly become irrelevant and eventually cease to function in any meaningful manner. A series of failures or indecisiveness could conceivably bring ASEAN to this state as the slow but continual breach to its cohesiveness and unity ultimately leads individual members to go it alone, or to look elsewhere for answers to their problems and national aspirations. ASEAN may go this course if it chooses to remain within its own cocoon and watches the world go by.

While this scenario is certainly an extreme one, it is not entirely farfetched. If ASEAN fails to respond appropriately or satisfactorily to the countervailing current of diverging national interests amidst the continuous dynamics of an ever- changing regional and global reality, then its cocoon of familiarity could turn out to be its vehicle to irrelevance.

These scenarios certainly do not need to be. ASEAN need not be locked into any one particular eventuality and, it would be premature and indeed unwise to ascribe death to an organization that has essentiality stood the test of time. Still, a changing regional and global environment is a double-edged sword: It can either serve as an obstacle or as a new opportunity for ASEAN to define itself to its member states and the world. That is the challenge for ASEAN as it moves towards the new millennium.

Dr. Bilson Kurus is a Visiting Research Associate with the Institute for Development Studies, Sabah, Malaysia.