ASEAN leaders' summit to focus on Myanmar, terrorism, economy

ASEAN leaders' summit to focus on Myanmar, terrorism, economy

Vijay Joshi, Associated Press, Kuala Lumpur

Democracy's apparent dead end in Myanmar, the terrorist threat from a Muslim insurgency in Thailand, and the flight of foreign investment to colossus China are on the diplomatic plate for Southeast Asia's annual summit next week.

This year's Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) meeting will be hosted by the poorest and most isolated member, Laos.

It's a coming-out party for the communist nation, and also the first regional parley for new leaders in Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore and Myanmar.

"What's new in the field today? Terrorism, diseases like bird flu and SARS, and the economic relevance of ASEAN," said Ramon Navaratnam of the Asian Strategy and Leadership Institute, a non- governmental think-tank, in Kuala Lumpur.

The 10-nation ASEAN opens its conference on Thursday in the Laotian capital Vientiane, culminating in a leaders' summit next Monday and Tuesday.

The group has been working on an ASEAN Free Trade Area, a market of 530 million people and a combined economy of US$ 1 trillion. But the countries remain a chain of disparate markets.

Some countries impose higher tariffs than has been agreed, goods can take five weeks to clear customs and prices on identical items vary on average 31 percent across the region, said a report by consultancy McKinsey & Co. in March.

Malaysia has stood out for measures protecting the region's only homegrown car industry.

ASEAN was founded by Indonesia, Singapore, Malaysia, Philippines and Thailand in 1967 as a bulwark against communism. It evolved into a political, cultural and economic club, with Brunei, Vietnam, Laos, Myanmar and Cambodia joining from 1985 to 1999.

Chin Kin Wah, a regional analyst for Singapore-based Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, said ASEAN needs to push for greater economic integration.

"How much further can we take this economic grouping? That is the most important question," he said. "ASEAN has to take the grouping beyond just tariff reduction."

ASEAN's economic relevance could be undermined by bilateral free trade agreements negotiated by richer ASEAN countries, especially Singapore, which has been impatient with the pace of liberalization.

"Singapore is a Trojan horse in ASEAN," Navaratnam said. "She is only interested in her own interests ... and can't wait to move with others."

ASEAN also is worried by the growing influence of China and India, which draw away foreign investment. The McKinsey report says ASEAN suffered a 66 percent decline in foreign investment and a 50 percent drop in economic growth since Asia's 1997 economic crisis.

But when it comes to China, the region's mantra could be: If you can't beat them, have them join you.

In Vientiane, an agreement will be signed by China and ASEAN to set up a free trade area aimed at removing tariffs on merchandise goods by 2010. The two sides are supposed to begin the tariff cuts in 2005.

Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao will hold a separate summit with ASEAN leaders, as will prime ministers of Japan, South Korea and India.

In addition, for the first time since 1977, leaders of Australia and New Zealand are invited to the summit.

The four first-time attendees from Southeast Asia are Malaysia's Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, Indonesia's President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, Singapore's Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong and Myanmar's Prime Minister Lt. Gen. Soe Win.

Soe Win will likely face intense questioning in private from colleagues about his military-ruled country's professed quest for democracy, which has all but stalled, drawing unwanted criticism for the region from world leaders.

Pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi remains under house arrest, and relatively moderate Prime Minister Khin Nyunt was fired last month on corruption allegations.

Last week, the junta released nearly 4,000 political prisoners from jail, apparently to blunt criticism, and that may placate ASEAN partners, said Malaysian political analyst P. Ramasamy.

"I don't think ASEAN is ready to renounce its non-interference policy," he said. "I don't see ASEAN putting any pressure on the Myanmar government to release Suu Kyi."

However, in a departure from protocol, Myanmar political's situation is likely to be cited in this year's summit statement, Thai government sources said on condition of anonymity.

Thailand also may face scrutiny -- especially from Muslim- majority countries Indonesia and Malaysia -- over allegations of heavy-handed tactics to control an Islamic insurgency in its southern provinces.

More than 500 people have been killed this year, including 85 at the hands of security forces on Oct. 25.

"ASEAN needs to pay special attention to the situation in southern Thailand as it can become a new flashpoint for terrorism in Southeast Asia," political analyst Agos Yusuff said in Kuala Lumpur. "Thailand must also stop treating this as a domestic issue but one with the potential to threaten regional stability."

Thailand is ready to respond if the issue is "raised by any country," said Kitti Wasinondh, the Thai Foreign Ministry's head of ASEAN affairs.