ASEAN Haze Risk Rises to Highest Level, Threatening Indonesia and Neighbours

The Singapore Institute of International Affairs (SIIA) has placed the 2026 haze risk for Southeast Asia in the highest category, warning of a significant threat to Indonesia, Singapore, Brunei, and Malaysia. The ‘red’ rating in the institute’s Haze Outlook 2026 report signals that conditions are ripe for severe transboundary haze, though it does not guarantee an event will occur. The heightened risk is primarily attributed to the return of the El Niño weather phenomenon and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole, a combination that historically leads to prolonged hot and dry weather, reduced rainfall, and a greater likelihood of land and forest fires. The report notes that similar climatic patterns preceded major haze crises in 1997-1998, 2015, and 2023.

The report marks the first high-risk dry season faced by President Prabowo Subianto’s administration. Data from Indonesia’s forest fire monitoring system, SiPongi, shows that land and forest fires have historically spiked during such periods, with 1.65 million hectares burned in 2019 and 1.16 million hectares in 2023. As of May 2026, preliminary data indicates 81,077 hectares have already been affected. The government has shifted its approach by establishing a coordinating desk under the Coordinating Ministry for Political, Legal and Security Affairs, framing forest fires as a national security issue rather than solely an environmental one. Measures include enhanced fire monitoring, air patrols, and support for community firefighting groups.

However, the government faces significant fiscal constraints as it strives to maintain the budget deficit below 3% of gross domestic product. This limits funding for essential prevention and mitigation efforts, such as weather modification operations, aerial patrols, and ground-level firefighting. The Ministry of Forestry has reportedly prepared at least 35 weather modification operations to mitigate fire risks as the dry season intensifies. Beyond weather, the SIIA report highlights economic drivers of fire risk, particularly the disruption to global energy supplies and the resulting push for biofuels. Indonesia’s plan to increase its mandatory biodiesel blend from B40 to B50 in 2026 would require an additional 4 million tonnes of crude palm oil annually, potentially increasing pressure to expand oil palm plantations and raising the risk of land clearing through fire.