ASEAN energy demand predicted to jump fourfold
ASEAN energy demand predicted to jump fourfold
SINGAPORE (AFP): Energy demand in ASEAN is expected to jump more than fourfold by 2020 in line with rapid regional development, a petroleum conference was told.
Energy demand of the seven member economies of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) would increase to 460 million tons of oil equivalent while supply would rise to 630 million tons of oil equivalent.
The figures, worked out from a 1988 base, were released by the ASEAN-EC Energy Management Training and Research Center at a conference in Singapore on the economics of managing downstream petroleum operations.
The energy-guzzling ASEAN economies consumed 110 million tons of oil equivalent and enjoyed a slightly higher level of supply in 1988.
"In line with rapid economic growth, energy consumption of the ASEAN economies will increase rapidly," Abdullah Ahmad, the center's research head, told the two-day conference which began Wednesday.
ASEAN, comprising Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam, is reputedly the world's most rapidly growing region.
Abdullah said that the study on ASEAN's energy needs to 2020 was the latest to be undertaken by the Jakarta-based center, set up in 1988 to boost energy cooperation within ASEAN and between the grouping and the European Union.
He said that ASEAN's gross domestic product was expected to grow at 6.8 percent a year up to 2010 and 5.9 percent annually up to 2020.
Adul Leelapatranurak, executive director of the Petroleum Authority of Thailand's refining sector group, told the conference that greater regional cooperation, including in trading, would be the key to meeting the high energy demand.
"Opportunities and subsequent rewards would be enhanced if the petroleum industries are to undertake further cooperation and trading within the region, " Adul said.
"In so doing, we can maintain the stability of refining industries which in turn will contribute to the common progress and the well-being of our region," he said.
Adul said there could be improvement in the "receiving" facilities of member countries to overcome "tight supply situation in certain refined oil products."
"Those facing shortage of certain products should improve the receiving terminals so that we can all share the resources," he said.
Conference participants lamented that there was also increased competition in the Asian refining sector, where production capacity is rising to meet the booming demand.
Abdullah, who spoke on ASEAN's energy requirement and its implications on refining operations, said that the region's transport sector would be the top energy consumer in 2020 followed by industrial and residential and commercial sectors.
"For all scenarios, final energy demand of the transport sector will experience the highest growth rate, which will have implications on environmental pollution," he said.
He added that primary energy supply in the region in 2020 would be dominated by petroleum products, making up 267 million tons of oil equivalent or 40 percent of the overall figure.
However relative contribution of oil in 2020 would be 40 percent, significantly less than the 1988 share of 50 percent.
Natural gas's share to energy supply would rise from 12 percent in 1988 to 16 percent in 2020, Abdullah said.