ASEAN can overcome threat of redundancy

ASEAN can overcome threat of redundancy

By Lee Kim Chew

SINGAPORE: Adrift since the 1997 Asian financial crisis, the
Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has diminished as
a regional entity, but all is not lost yet.

The recent gathering of foreign ministers in Hanoi shows that
it has not been written off, and there is commitment from the big
countries to stay engaged.

All the major powers -- the United States, Russia, China,
Japan and the European Union -- have reaffirmed their confidence
in the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF).

China's growing comfort level with the security forum is
evident as it senses that the forum is not a ploy to box it in.

Chinese Foreign Minister Tang Jiaxuan called the ARF "the most
important venue in the Asia-Pacific region for the discussion of
regional security issues".

China and Russia are prepared to sign ASEAN's treaty to make
Southeast Asia a nuclear weapons-free zone, and Beijing is
willing to abide by a code of conduct on the South China Sea.

Sino-American relations have also improved, with both sides
putting the spy-plane incident in Hainan behind them.

As U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell said, "the
relationship is on an upswing now", given that China accepts
America's presence in the region.

Despite sharp differences over missile defense, Taiwan and
human rights, both countries want to keep their relations on an
even keel, at least in the run-up to President George W. Bush's
visit to China in October.

The outlook for the region's security environment is the
better for it.

To bolster the ARF's standing, the 23-member forum will
develop the concept and principles of preventive diplomacy,
enhance the role of the ARF chair and create an eminent-persons
register to provide solutions to security problems.

All this will contribute to the forum's confidence-building
activities, and make it more action-oriented.

The Chinese again restated their support for ASEAN to play a
leading role in the ARF, to pre-empt any U.S. bid to dominate the
forum and define its activities.

Belgian Foreign Minister Louis Michel, the current EU
president, said there was no better place than the ARF for the
major powers to discuss regional security issues.

"The EU is ready to share its experience on preventive
diplomacy ... Asian countries could adopt it... There's no need
to reinvent the wheel once again," he said.

All this sounds pretty good. In fact, ASEAN's meetings with
its dialog partners in Hanoi were largely non-contentious.

Even Myanmar Foreign Minister Win Aung said he enjoyed them.
Unlike in previous years, he was spared the verbal flaying from
Western countries critical of his government's human-rights
record.

Indeed, the meetings in Hanoi were notable for the torrent of
words, pious hopes and promise of action, but there was precious
little beyond the ARF to boost ASEAN's sagging fortunes.

ASEAN foreign ministers failed to produce new initiatives,
even though they recognized the urgent need to revamp its
battered international image.

The harshest words of critical self-appraisal came from
Secretary-General Rodolfo Severino, who called ASEAN "a region
whose economy has been weakened, its politics unstable, a region
in disarray and rudderless".

No ASEAN minister challenged this description. At least they
were not in denial mode.

There is no doubt that ASEAN has an uphill battle on its hands
against an image problem after its failure to respond effectively
to the 1997 financial crisis, Indonesia's forest fires and the
rampage in East Timor.

Indonesia's political turmoil was also bad news for ASEAN.

Now the grouping faces the dangers of an economic slowdown in
the United States, Japan and Europe -- ASEAN's major export
markets -- and growing competition from China.

While rumors about its imminent demise are grossly
exaggerated, the perceptions about ASEAN's impotence are real.

ASEAN ministers want to regain the grouping's dynamism of pre-
crisis days and speak with one voice. But how?

Take the ASEAN Free Trade Area (AFTA). Malaysia's insistence
on seeking exemptions in order to give extended protection to its
automotive-parts industry slows down AFTA and undermines
confidence.

It is a retrogressive step but ASEAN economics ministers have
yet to get around the problem.

Similarly, Malaysian criticism of the free-trade pacts which
Singapore champions points to differences within ASEAN over how
to resurrect investor confidence and promote trade in Southeast
Asia. With the political uncertainties in Indonesia and
kidnappings in the Philippines, these cast a deep pall over the
10-member grouping.

ASEAN has suffered from a leadership void since the fall of
President Soeharto. Instead of reforms and reinvigoration, it saw
two presidents hounded ignominiously out of office this year.

These are unsettling times for ASEAN.

Even as old problems remain unsolved, new ones have surfaced.
ASEAN will face a serious challenge when China joins the World
Trade Organization in November.

China's phenomenal growth and huge markets will draw away
foreign investors unless ASEAN makes itself attractive. Which is
why ASEAN cannot afford to stall on AFTA.

Faltering on AFTA will also make it harder for ASEAN to close
the wealth gap among member states. ASEAN economic integration
will be no more than a dream unless the gap is narrowed.

A widening gap makes for an unstable ASEAN.

The prospects remain uncertain as ASEAN countries, unable or
unwilling to act in concert, are preoccupied with their own
domestic difficulties.

Singapore Foreign Minister S. Jayakumar has urged member
states to stay on track with AFTA, engage the major powers and
establish new linkages. "We cannot stand still. We must come out
with new ideas," he said.

Thailand is trying to organize a conference to put ASEAN
countries back in business.

But reviving ASEAN requires more than just sales talk.

The writer covered the recent ASEAN ministerial meeting and
ASEAN Regional Forum in Hanoi.

-- The Straits Times/Asia News Network