ASEAN can overcome threat of redundancy

ASEAN can overcome threat of redundancy

By Lee Kim Chew

SINGAPORE: Adrift since the 1997 Asian financial crisis, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has diminished as a regional entity, but all is not lost yet.

The recent gathering of foreign ministers in Hanoi shows that it has not been written off, and there is commitment from the big countries to stay engaged.

All the major powers -- the United States, Russia, China, Japan and the European Union -- have reaffirmed their confidence in the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF).

China's growing comfort level with the security forum is evident as it senses that the forum is not a ploy to box it in.

Chinese Foreign Minister Tang Jiaxuan called the ARF "the most important venue in the Asia-Pacific region for the discussion of regional security issues".

China and Russia are prepared to sign ASEAN's treaty to make Southeast Asia a nuclear weapons-free zone, and Beijing is willing to abide by a code of conduct on the South China Sea.

Sino-American relations have also improved, with both sides putting the spy-plane incident in Hainan behind them.

As U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell said, "the relationship is on an upswing now", given that China accepts America's presence in the region.

Despite sharp differences over missile defense, Taiwan and human rights, both countries want to keep their relations on an even keel, at least in the run-up to President George W. Bush's visit to China in October.

The outlook for the region's security environment is the better for it.

To bolster the ARF's standing, the 23-member forum will develop the concept and principles of preventive diplomacy, enhance the role of the ARF chair and create an eminent-persons register to provide solutions to security problems.

All this will contribute to the forum's confidence-building activities, and make it more action-oriented.

The Chinese again restated their support for ASEAN to play a leading role in the ARF, to pre-empt any U.S. bid to dominate the forum and define its activities.

Belgian Foreign Minister Louis Michel, the current EU president, said there was no better place than the ARF for the major powers to discuss regional security issues.

"The EU is ready to share its experience on preventive diplomacy ... Asian countries could adopt it... There's no need to reinvent the wheel once again," he said.

All this sounds pretty good. In fact, ASEAN's meetings with its dialog partners in Hanoi were largely non-contentious.

Even Myanmar Foreign Minister Win Aung said he enjoyed them. Unlike in previous years, he was spared the verbal flaying from Western countries critical of his government's human-rights record.

Indeed, the meetings in Hanoi were notable for the torrent of words, pious hopes and promise of action, but there was precious little beyond the ARF to boost ASEAN's sagging fortunes.

ASEAN foreign ministers failed to produce new initiatives, even though they recognized the urgent need to revamp its battered international image.

The harshest words of critical self-appraisal came from Secretary-General Rodolfo Severino, who called ASEAN "a region whose economy has been weakened, its politics unstable, a region in disarray and rudderless".

No ASEAN minister challenged this description. At least they were not in denial mode.

There is no doubt that ASEAN has an uphill battle on its hands against an image problem after its failure to respond effectively to the 1997 financial crisis, Indonesia's forest fires and the rampage in East Timor.

Indonesia's political turmoil was also bad news for ASEAN.

Now the grouping faces the dangers of an economic slowdown in the United States, Japan and Europe -- ASEAN's major export markets -- and growing competition from China.

While rumors about its imminent demise are grossly exaggerated, the perceptions about ASEAN's impotence are real.

ASEAN ministers want to regain the grouping's dynamism of pre- crisis days and speak with one voice. But how?

Take the ASEAN Free Trade Area (AFTA). Malaysia's insistence on seeking exemptions in order to give extended protection to its automotive-parts industry slows down AFTA and undermines confidence.

It is a retrogressive step but ASEAN economics ministers have yet to get around the problem.

Similarly, Malaysian criticism of the free-trade pacts which Singapore champions points to differences within ASEAN over how to resurrect investor confidence and promote trade in Southeast Asia. With the political uncertainties in Indonesia and kidnappings in the Philippines, these cast a deep pall over the 10-member grouping.

ASEAN has suffered from a leadership void since the fall of President Soeharto. Instead of reforms and reinvigoration, it saw two presidents hounded ignominiously out of office this year.

These are unsettling times for ASEAN.

Even as old problems remain unsolved, new ones have surfaced. ASEAN will face a serious challenge when China joins the World Trade Organization in November.

China's phenomenal growth and huge markets will draw away foreign investors unless ASEAN makes itself attractive. Which is why ASEAN cannot afford to stall on AFTA.

Faltering on AFTA will also make it harder for ASEAN to close the wealth gap among member states. ASEAN economic integration will be no more than a dream unless the gap is narrowed.

A widening gap makes for an unstable ASEAN.

The prospects remain uncertain as ASEAN countries, unable or unwilling to act in concert, are preoccupied with their own domestic difficulties.

Singapore Foreign Minister S. Jayakumar has urged member states to stay on track with AFTA, engage the major powers and establish new linkages. "We cannot stand still. We must come out with new ideas," he said.

Thailand is trying to organize a conference to put ASEAN countries back in business.

But reviving ASEAN requires more than just sales talk.

The writer covered the recent ASEAN ministerial meeting and ASEAN Regional Forum in Hanoi.

-- The Straits Times/Asia News Network