ASEAN+3 Revises 2026 Economic Growth Forecast Upwards

Singapore (ANTARA) - The ASEAN+3 region, comprising ASEAN member states plus China, Japan, and South Korea, is projected to record economic growth of 4.1 percent in 2026, according to the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) on Monday (27/7). The quarterly update on the regional economic outlook slightly raised the forecast from the 4.0 percent estimated in June. AMRO said the improved outlook was driven by sustained momentum in the technology sector, particularly strong demand for semiconductors and other artificial intelligence (AI)-related products, as well as more supportive global commodity price conditions. Robust household consumption, resilient investment, and strong exports of semiconductors and electronics are expected to remain the main growth drivers, AMRO said. It added that manufacturing activity continues to expand as disruptions to energy and industrial input supplies proved less severe than initially anticipated. “ASEAN+3 remains resilient, supported by strong domestic demand and its central role in the global AI supply chain,” said AMRO Chief Economist Dong He. He noted that the impact of the conflict in the Middle East also turned out to be less severe than expected, although high energy and input costs continue to pose risks to inflation and industrial activity. Meanwhile, headline inflation is projected at 1.6 percent in 2026, down from the previous forecast of 1.8 percent, reflecting expectations of lower global commodity prices. According to AMRO, inflationary pressures remain generally contained, with price increases mainly concentrated in energy and transport. However, AMRO warned that food inflation could potentially rise as higher input costs and adverse weather conditions affect prices.