ARF Phnom Penh meeting: ASEAN is the cheerleader

ARF Phnom Penh meeting: ASEAN is the cheerleader

Kornelius Purba, Staff Writer, The Jakarta Post, Jakarta,
korpur@yahoo.com

U.S. State Secretary Colin Powell, South Korean foreign
minister Yoon Young-Kwan and Japan's Yoriko Kawaguchi are
understandably upset by the absence of North Korean foreign
minister Paek Nam-Sun from next week's Association of Southeast
Asian Nations Regional Forum (ARF) in Phonm Penh. They have lost
the opportunity to interrogate the foreign minister over the
existence of North Korean nuclear weapons.

Knowing the ARF could turn into a "court" to try his country,
North Korean leader Kim Jong-il canceled the presence of Paek
Nam-Sun and instead sent diplomat Ho Jong to be scolded by forum
participants.

The prime minister of ASEAN's youngest member, Cambodia's Hun
Sen, of course is disappointed because his government will lose
the golden chance that a solution to North Korea's nuclear threat
will be reached during the meeting. From a trouble maker for
nearly two decades in the region, this is an opportunity for Hun
Sen to prove that his country can also become a peacemaker.

How about Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, the
Philippines, Brunei, Vietnam, Laos, and Myanmar as ASEAN members?
ASEAN foreign ministers will also miss the opportunity to act as
cheerleaders (for both sides) when the North Korean minister is
grilled by his country's opponents. Meanwhile other ARF
participants like Australia, Canada, Russia and China will also
play their role to press North Korea.

In the last few years however, group members only became
spectators or cheerleaders to see their guests acting as if they
were the host and not part of ASEAN.

Security in the Korean Peninsula is of course of vital
interest to the national security of Japan and South Korea.
Instability in East Asia will affect not just the neighboring
countries but the world; what will happen when North Korea
attacks her enemies with nuclear weapons?

However, ARF is a forum organized and hosted by ASEAN, and is
held after its annual foreign ministers meeting. The regional
group is the host and it has its own security problems from the
threat of terrorism, and the rejection of Myanmar's military
junta to hand over its power to Aung San Suu Kyi as the winner of
the 1991 general elections. The latest regional security threat
comes from the war in Aceh, because the effects of the battles
can also spread to the Malacca Strait. The Indonesian Military
(TNI) just announced the closure of Aceh waters, while the
province lies just in front of the Strait.

ASEAN cannot be expected to play a significant role to
convince Jong-ill to abandon his nuclear programs. President
Megawati Soekarnoputri has naively thought that her friendship
with the North Korean leader will be able to persuade him to stop
the dangerous weapons game. Megawati totally failed.

ARF is only one of a number of international shows to be
performed in this region this year. Later this year, Megawati
will host ASEAN's annual summit in Bali. Japanese Prime Minister
Junichiro Koizumi, Chinese President Hu Jintao, and South Korean
President Roh Moo Hyun will come as guests, but in fact ASEAN's
10 leaders will only be providing the venue for their trilateral
summit to again discuss the North Korea issue. Of course they
expect Megawati to become a pleasant hostess to whom they will
promise more financial loans.

Again, Kim Jong-ill will become the "defendant" during the
next Asia Pacific Economic Forum (APEC) summit in Bangkok later
in October. This time, the chief prosecutor will fly directly
from Washington. President George W. Bush will become the star of
the summit as he may issue a final verdict against North Korea.
Will Thailand be proud to be chosen by Bush to issue the sentence
against the isolated state? For sure, Bush will praise Megawati
for her war against terrorists here and for her government's late
confession that Jemaah Islamiyah (JI) really exists here, despite
the previously emotional denials from Indonesian leaders.

Bush may also, albeit with a shy tone, softly advise Megawati
to end human rights abuses during the Aceh war. He will also ask
her to show him evidence that the Free Aceh Movement (GAM) is
really a terrorist organization. He must be careful, otherwise
Megawati will tell him, "We're just following what you did in
attacking Iraq. As soon as you are able to provide evidence over
the deadly weapons in Iraq, I will give you evidence on GAM."

At year's end, Koizumi will invite ASEAN leaders to enjoy an
early winter in Tokyo and simultaneously to mark the culmination
of the Year of Japan-ASEAN. The leaders will be enthusiastic to
come to Tokyo, as in the words of the Philippine President the
yen is more mighty than anyone else.

To be fair ASEAN actually has slowly restored its own self-
confidence as a key regional group, and once was even described
as a model for an ideal regional organization. Since 1997 ASEAN
has lost its power as an international forum, as each member is
busy cleaning their own messy homes.

The fall of Soeharto -- internationally recognized as the key
for ASEAN success as a solid forum -- worsens the situation.
Until now Indonesia is still busy with its own chaos, and there
is still no convincing sign that the country is ready again to
resume its role as the anchor of the regional group. However
there is now even fear that Indonesia will not regain its
original power for another decade.

Singaporean leaders or the outspoken Malaysian Prime Minister
Mahathir Mohamad also acknowledge that no other country can take
over Indonesia's role in the region.

If the assumption is true than how long should ASEAN wait
until it can stop its cheer leader role? How long should the
leaders wait for the world to listen again to them as a group?
Other ASEAN countries cannot just wait for a miracle for
Indonesia's recovery. They must protect their own national
interests. Bilaterally, countries like Singapore and Thailand
have sought free trade agreements with industrialized countries
like the U.S. and Japan.

Probably it will be better for them not to wait for
Indonesia's revival. There will be a collective leadership. But
to become an audience in one's home region is also not a bad
choice. At least the regional group will be remembered as a
pleasant listener by their richer friends. Who knows, they may be
more generous as a result.