ARF Phnom Penh meeting: ASEAN is the cheerleader

Kornelius Purba, Staff Writer, The Jakarta Post, Jakarta, korpur@yahoo.com

U.S. State Secretary Colin Powell, South Korean foreign minister Yoon Young-Kwan and Japan's Yoriko Kawaguchi are understandably upset by the absence of North Korean foreign minister Paek Nam-Sun from next week's Association of Southeast Asian Nations Regional Forum (ARF) in Phonm Penh. They have lost the opportunity to interrogate the foreign minister over the existence of North Korean nuclear weapons.

Knowing the ARF could turn into a "court" to try his country, North Korean leader Kim Jong-il canceled the presence of Paek Nam-Sun and instead sent diplomat Ho Jong to be scolded by forum participants.

The prime minister of ASEAN's youngest member, Cambodia's Hun Sen, of course is disappointed because his government will lose the golden chance that a solution to North Korea's nuclear threat will be reached during the meeting. From a trouble maker for nearly two decades in the region, this is an opportunity for Hun Sen to prove that his country can also become a peacemaker.

How about Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, the Philippines, Brunei, Vietnam, Laos, and Myanmar as ASEAN members? ASEAN foreign ministers will also miss the opportunity to act as cheerleaders (for both sides) when the North Korean minister is grilled by his country's opponents. Meanwhile other ARF participants like Australia, Canada, Russia and China will also play their role to press North Korea.

In the last few years however, group members only became spectators or cheerleaders to see their guests acting as if they were the host and not part of ASEAN.

Security in the Korean Peninsula is of course of vital interest to the national security of Japan and South Korea. Instability in East Asia will affect not just the neighboring countries but the world; what will happen when North Korea attacks her enemies with nuclear weapons?

However, ARF is a forum organized and hosted by ASEAN, and is held after its annual foreign ministers meeting. The regional group is the host and it has its own security problems from the threat of terrorism, and the rejection of Myanmar's military junta to hand over its power to Aung San Suu Kyi as the winner of the 1991 general elections. The latest regional security threat comes from the war in Aceh, because the effects of the battles can also spread to the Malacca Strait. The Indonesian Military (TNI) just announced the closure of Aceh waters, while the province lies just in front of the Strait.

ASEAN cannot be expected to play a significant role to convince Jong-ill to abandon his nuclear programs. President Megawati Soekarnoputri has naively thought that her friendship with the North Korean leader will be able to persuade him to stop the dangerous weapons game. Megawati totally failed.

ARF is only one of a number of international shows to be performed in this region this year. Later this year, Megawati will host ASEAN's annual summit in Bali. Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, Chinese President Hu Jintao, and South Korean President Roh Moo Hyun will come as guests, but in fact ASEAN's 10 leaders will only be providing the venue for their trilateral summit to again discuss the North Korea issue. Of course they expect Megawati to become a pleasant hostess to whom they will promise more financial loans.

Again, Kim Jong-ill will become the "defendant" during the next Asia Pacific Economic Forum (APEC) summit in Bangkok later in October. This time, the chief prosecutor will fly directly from Washington. President George W. Bush will become the star of the summit as he may issue a final verdict against North Korea. Will Thailand be proud to be chosen by Bush to issue the sentence against the isolated state? For sure, Bush will praise Megawati for her war against terrorists here and for her government's late confession that Jemaah Islamiyah (JI) really exists here, despite the previously emotional denials from Indonesian leaders.

Bush may also, albeit with a shy tone, softly advise Megawati to end human rights abuses during the Aceh war. He will also ask her to show him evidence that the Free Aceh Movement (GAM) is really a terrorist organization. He must be careful, otherwise Megawati will tell him, "We're just following what you did in attacking Iraq. As soon as you are able to provide evidence over the deadly weapons in Iraq, I will give you evidence on GAM."

At year's end, Koizumi will invite ASEAN leaders to enjoy an early winter in Tokyo and simultaneously to mark the culmination of the Year of Japan-ASEAN. The leaders will be enthusiastic to come to Tokyo, as in the words of the Philippine President the yen is more mighty than anyone else.

To be fair ASEAN actually has slowly restored its own self- confidence as a key regional group, and once was even described as a model for an ideal regional organization. Since 1997 ASEAN has lost its power as an international forum, as each member is busy cleaning their own messy homes.

The fall of Soeharto -- internationally recognized as the key for ASEAN success as a solid forum -- worsens the situation. Until now Indonesia is still busy with its own chaos, and there is still no convincing sign that the country is ready again to resume its role as the anchor of the regional group. However there is now even fear that Indonesia will not regain its original power for another decade.

Singaporean leaders or the outspoken Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad also acknowledge that no other country can take over Indonesia's role in the region.

If the assumption is true than how long should ASEAN wait until it can stop its cheer leader role? How long should the leaders wait for the world to listen again to them as a group? Other ASEAN countries cannot just wait for a miracle for Indonesia's recovery. They must protect their own national interests. Bilaterally, countries like Singapore and Thailand have sought free trade agreements with industrialized countries like the U.S. and Japan.

Probably it will be better for them not to wait for Indonesia's revival. There will be a collective leadership. But to become an audience in one's home region is also not a bad choice. At least the regional group will be remembered as a pleasant listener by their richer friends. Who knows, they may be more generous as a result.