April Inflation Forecast to Decline as Eid al-Fitr Effects Subside, but Purchasing Power Remains Weak

JAKARTA, KOMPAS.com - The Central Statistics Agency will announce the national economic data for April 2026 on Monday (4/5/2026) at 11.00 WIB.

Economist from Paramadina University, Wijayanto Samirin, estimates that the year-on-year inflation for April 2026 will be in the range of 2.9 percent to 3.1 percent.

“April inflation on a yoy basis will be lower than that, my estimate is in the range of 2.9-3.1 percent,” he told Kompas.com on Monday (5/5/2026).

He assessed that the impact of global energy price increases is still being held back. Subsidised fuel and LPG prices have not risen. The adjustments that have occurred are also limited.

The portion of fuel is around 5 percent of total consumption. The portion of LPG is around 20 percent. This condition is holding back overall price pressures.

“YoY inflation will decline compared to March, because the impact of the seasonal Eid al-Fitr effect is starting to ease, in addition, the public’s purchasing power has not yet returned,” he said.

Wijayanto added that the projection of low inflation had already been anticipated. Market attention is also divided to other issues.

Those issues include fiscal deficits, capital outflows, rupiah weakening, and the decline in the IHSG. The market is also monitoring plans to review the MSCI index and ratings from S&P.

He also mentioned the possibility of adjustments to non-subsidised fuel prices, including Pertamax.

“There is potential (in the second quarter) for a significant increase. The main factors are food inflation due to El Niño, and Pertamina’s financial capacity is no longer able to hold back LPG and fuel prices,” he concluded.

Previous data showed that year-on-year inflation began to ease in March 2026. The inflation figure was recorded at 3.48 percent. February was at the level of 4.76 percent.

Head of BPS Amalia Adininggar Widyasanti assessed that the figure does not yet fully reflect the real conditions.

“In January-February 2025, the government implemented an electricity tariff discount policy, so the price level in that period was below the normal trend and suppressed the CPI,” Amalia said in a written statement on Wednesday (1/4/2026).