Anwar case could change leadership in Malaysia

Anwar case could change leadership in Malaysia

SINGAPORE (AFP): Lingering negative sentiment over the arrest
of Malaysia's former deputy premier Anwar Ibrahim may force the
ruling party to remove Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad, according
to a report received here.

The prestigious Political and Economic Risk Consultancy's
(PERC) latest fortnightly report said Mahathir's "Achilles'
heel," was the Supreme Council of the ruling United Malays
National Organization (UMNO) party of which he is president.

"For the moment, the senior Malay politicians that make up
this body -- almost all Mahathir loyalists -- have calculated
that the best hope for their respective political futures lies in
continuing to express full support for the UMNO president," said
the report.

"However, should the shock dismissal and subsequent arrest and
trial of former finance minister Anwar continue to be viewed
negatively among the Malay grassroots, they could very well come
to the conclusion that a change of leadership would serve their
own political ambitions more effectively," it added.

The report noted that Mahathir, 73, may wield huge political
power, but the UMNO party "is not an organization of his own
creation." Mahathir came to power in 1981.

Other analysts have said Mahathir is unlikely to risk letting
his government complete its term as scheduled in April 2000,
given the uncertainties clouding the economy and the region.

"The idea that Mahathir maintains a firm grip on all the major
power bases in Malaysian society, however, is simply not true,"
the report said.

It noted that not all Malaysian states were under Mahathir's
control, citing the Islamic fundamentalist party, Parti Islam
Semalaysia's (PAS) control over the northeastern Malaysian
states.

PAS has supported opposition protests that followed Anwar's
arrest.

Access to the Internet which provides uncensored news reports
on national affairs has also eroded the influence of the national
media, which PERC considered among the power bases that helped
UMNO and Mahathir "ensure victories in past political battles."

Anwar, 51, was arrested on Sept. 20 after leading huge
protests calling on Mahathir to resign.

The former finance minister is currently on trial on four
charges of corruption for allegedly abusing his official position
by ordering police to quash allegations of sexual misconduct.