Andaman Sea significant for Asian economy

By Edward Neilan

BANGKOK (JP): The three-and-one-half hour trip by motorized cruiser on the mighty Chao Phraya (river of the kings) from the ancient capital of Ayutthaya to the present capital of Bangkok gives one a refreshing respite from all the Asian crisis talk that has been in the air.

I didn't spot a hedge fund or a floating debenture on the entire journey.

Seriously, Thai river life is prospering as always. It wasn't until the vessel packed with European, Japanese and American tourists reached the center of the city and the empty skyscraper that is supposed to be the luxury Sofitel hotel loomed 35 stories on the right bank, that it was even hinted that something might be wrong with real estate and banking here.

Further down-river, The Peninsula from Hong Kong is new and setting high occupancy rate records. On the other side, the Royal Orchid Sheraton Towers, The Oriental (voted the world's best hotel nearly every year), and the Shangri-La hotels may turn the economy around all by themselves -- the upscale tourism business is that good.

Thais are pretty much tired of listening to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and other foreigners telling them what to do about their economy; the baht devaluation in 1997 set off what is now known widely as "the Asian financial crisis". The ensuing domino effect in the region was the basis for the frustrated predictions of how to get back on track and what went wrong in the first place.

There are 11 bills before the Thai parliament right now that more or less jibe with a consensus of international correction plans and these are expected at best to add to the already encouraging signs that the Thailand comeback has begun.

Now the talk of Thailand is Burma. No one here calls it Myanmar or the capital Yangon except the Japanese embassy. The ruling junta which hijacked elections changed the names but almost no one uses them.

Everybody else, including all Thai newspapers, use "Burma" and "Rangoon," respectively. Rudyard Kipling, Somerset Maugham and George Orwell would approve.

One argument is whether Thailand should support Myanmar in upcoming talks with the European Union as a display of Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) solidarity or give the cold shoulder to Rangoon in order to get EU economic assistance.

Of course, Myanmar still is in international hot water over its drug-running record and this is one thing U.S. Secretary of State Madeline Albert will be talking about when she overnights here in early March.

She'll tell the Thais to exert pressure on the Myanmar people and to follow U.S. economic recovery suggestions.

Frankly, I think she would get more out of a boat trip on the Chao Phraya river than staying holed up in the new American Embassy which was built on the model of a medieval fortress. It is a scary-looking place, interrupting the calm of Wireless Road and giving the U.S. an armed camp image based on some imaginary terrorist threat rather than the old sedate image.

ASEAN had been repeatedly warned by its dialog partners that admitting Burma to ASEAN in 1997 would have negative consequences for the organization's diplomatic relations.

Rota Patiyasevi, an analyst writing in Bangkok's The Nation newspaper said "Burma's economy is in ruins with the region's economic decline affecting investment in the country. Burma's foreign currency reserve is estimated to be below US$150 million".

It is against this backdrop that Japanese concerns have intensified.

For the Japanese, Myanmar's human rights excesses, drug dealings and the furor over the EU meeting take a back seat to a more grand strategic security threat which they see -- Chinese encroachment.

This is the view of a significant number of foreign diplomats and Thai analysts here who count themselves as "Japan watchers".

Acknowledging that the Japanese foreign ministry puts a different spin on the situation, these analysts say their explanation is the only way to account for Japan's coziness with Yangon's junta, over American objections.

Japan's invitations to junta members -- including training of army officers and continued economic ties -- aims to blunt China inroads which include building of port facilities along the Andaman Sea as part of economic cooperation with Myanmar.

Chinese usage of Andaman Sea bases would pose a threat to Japan's oil shipping lifeline to the Middle East.

Edward Neilan is a Tokyo-based analyst of Northeast Asian affairs and a media fellow at Hoover Institution, Stanford University.