Andaman Sea significant for Asian economy

Andaman Sea significant for Asian economy

By Edward Neilan

BANGKOK (JP): The three-and-one-half hour trip by motorized
cruiser on the mighty Chao Phraya (river of the kings) from the
ancient capital of Ayutthaya to the present capital of Bangkok
gives one a refreshing respite from all the Asian crisis talk
that has been in the air.

I didn't spot a hedge fund or a floating debenture on the
entire journey.

Seriously, Thai river life is prospering as always. It wasn't
until the vessel packed with European, Japanese and American
tourists reached the center of the city and the empty skyscraper
that is supposed to be the luxury Sofitel hotel loomed 35 stories
on the right bank, that it was even hinted that something might
be wrong with real estate and banking here.

Further down-river, The Peninsula from Hong Kong is new and
setting high occupancy rate records. On the other side, the Royal
Orchid Sheraton Towers, The Oriental (voted the world's best
hotel nearly every year), and the Shangri-La hotels may turn the
economy around all by themselves -- the upscale tourism business
is that good.

Thais are pretty much tired of listening to the International
Monetary Fund (IMF) and other foreigners telling them what to do
about their economy; the baht devaluation in 1997 set off what is
now known widely as "the Asian financial crisis". The ensuing
domino effect in the region was the basis for the frustrated
predictions of how to get back on track and what went wrong in
the first place.

There are 11 bills before the Thai parliament right now that
more or less jibe with a consensus of international correction
plans and these are expected at best to add to the already
encouraging signs that the Thailand comeback has begun.

Now the talk of Thailand is Burma. No one here calls it
Myanmar or the capital Yangon except the Japanese embassy. The
ruling junta which hijacked elections changed the names but
almost no one uses them.

Everybody else, including all Thai newspapers, use "Burma" and
"Rangoon," respectively. Rudyard Kipling, Somerset Maugham and
George Orwell would approve.

One argument is whether Thailand should support Myanmar in
upcoming talks with the European Union as a display of
Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) solidarity or give
the cold shoulder to Rangoon in order to get EU economic
assistance.

Of course, Myanmar still is in international hot water over
its drug-running record and this is one thing U.S. Secretary of
State Madeline Albert will be talking about when she overnights
here in early March.

She'll tell the Thais to exert pressure on the Myanmar people
and to follow U.S. economic recovery suggestions.

Frankly, I think she would get more out of a boat trip on the
Chao Phraya river than staying holed up in the new American
Embassy which was built on the model of a medieval fortress. It
is a scary-looking place, interrupting the calm of Wireless Road
and giving the U.S. an armed camp image based on some imaginary
terrorist threat rather than the old sedate image.

ASEAN had been repeatedly warned by its dialog partners that
admitting Burma to ASEAN in 1997 would have negative consequences
for the organization's diplomatic relations.

Rota Patiyasevi, an analyst writing in Bangkok's The Nation
newspaper said "Burma's economy is in ruins with the region's
economic decline affecting investment in the country. Burma's
foreign currency reserve is estimated to be below US$150
million".

It is against this backdrop that Japanese concerns have
intensified.

For the Japanese, Myanmar's human rights excesses, drug
dealings and the furor over the EU meeting take a back seat to a
more grand strategic security threat which they see -- Chinese
encroachment.

This is the view of a significant number of foreign diplomats
and Thai analysts here who count themselves as "Japan watchers".

Acknowledging that the Japanese foreign ministry puts a
different spin on the situation, these analysts say their
explanation is the only way to account for Japan's coziness with
Yangon's junta, over American objections.

Japan's invitations to junta members -- including training of
army officers and continued economic ties -- aims to blunt China
inroads which include building of port facilities along the
Andaman Sea as part of economic cooperation with Myanmar.

Chinese usage of Andaman Sea bases would pose a threat to
Japan's oil shipping lifeline to the Middle East.

Edward Neilan is a Tokyo-based analyst of Northeast Asian
affairs and a media fellow at Hoover Institution, Stanford
University.