Analysts Say Antam’s Fundamentals Remain Strong Amid MSCI Concerns
Investors should wait for prices to stabilise and foreign selling pressure to ease before entering gradually.
Jakarta (ANTARA) – Several analysts say the fundamentals and outlook for shares in PT Aneka Tambang Tbk (Antam, ANTM) remain strong despite sentiment surrounding the company’s removal from the Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) Global Standard index.
Phintraco Sekuritas analyst Alrich Paskalis Tambolang said the MSCI-related sentiment could prompt portfolio adjustments and increase share-price volatility, although it does not necessarily reflect the company’s fundamentals.
“Investors should wait for prices to stabilise and foreign selling pressure to ease before entering gradually,” he said in a statement in Jakarta on Thursday.
He said the state-owned company’s fundamentals were relatively strong. In the first half of 2026, its net profit reached Rp6.91 trillion, up 34 per cent year on year, with gold the main contributor to sales. Its nickel business and downstreaming projects could also drive growth.
The state-owned mining and mineral-processing company previously distributed Rp5.05 trillion in dividends for the 2025 financial year, or Rp209.99 per share, equivalent to 70 per cent of net profit. However, the next dividend will depend on 2026 earnings, cash flow and capital expenditure needs of around Rp6 trillion.
Mirae Asset Sekuritas senior market analyst Nafan Aji Gusta said Antam’s removal from the MSCI index had triggered short-term mechanical selling as global passive funds rebalanced their portfolios. However, the selling was technical and did not indicate a decline in the company’s operating performance.
“Strong cash flow and profitability make expectations of a substantial dividend distribution very realistic. Historically, ANTM has consistently maintained a high dividend payout ratio, so the prospect of an attractive dividend yield is expected to help catalyse a share-price recovery,” he said.
Panin Sekuritas analyst Elandry Pratama said the share-price pressure did not automatically indicate a deterioration in the company’s fundamentals.
“An opportunity to accumulate shares could emerge once the valuation becomes attractive, but this should be done gradually and after prices stabilise. In the current conditions, it is important to distinguish selling pressure caused by capital flows from a change in the company’s business outlook,” he said.
Korea Investment & Sekuritas Indonesia (KISI) head of research Muhammad Wafi added that the company’s prospects were more influenced by gold prices and its earnings. Nevertheless, broad-based foreign selling could still affect the share price.
Antam has previously stepped up the development of downstream businesses to increase the added value of mineral commodities and strengthen the company’s long-term fundamentals.
The effort is in line with the company’s solid performance in the first half of 2026, supported by growth in its nickel, bauxite and alumina businesses.
Antam Finance and Risk Management Director Arini Kasmira said in a statement received in Jakarta on Monday (12 October) that the first-half 2026 results reflected the company’s solid fundamentals, underpinned by optimising the performance of its key commodities and disciplined cost and risk management.