Analysts Predict Rupiah Exchange Rate for Next Week
The rupiah strengthened by 21 points to 17,922 per US dollar at the close of trading on Friday, 26 June 2026. However, analysts predict the currency could again breach the 18,000 level next week. Ibrahim Assuabi, a currency and commodities observer and Director of PT Traze Andalan Futures, forecasts the rupiah will move in a volatile manner on Monday, 29 June 2026, but close weaker between 17,920 and 17,960 per US dollar. For the week ahead, he sees the rupiah trading in a range of 17,880 to 18,100 per US dollar.
The US dollar has been observed strengthening throughout the week. Bank Indonesia’s Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate (Jisdor) data recorded the rupiah at 17,819 per US dollar on Monday, 22 June 2026, weakening to 17,955 on Wednesday, before strengthening slightly to 17,942 on Thursday and closing at 17,962 on Friday.
According to Ibrahim, the dollar’s strength against several currencies, including the rupiah, comes amid the Middle East conflict. The war between the US and Iran is beginning to subside, but there is no certainty regarding the end of tensions. Crude oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz increased in the week following an agreement between the United States and Iran to reopen the waterway. “Meanwhile, concerns about how long the strait will remain open are also boosting trade,” he said.
Another influencing sentiment is US inflation data. Core inflation rose to 3.4 percent, while headline inflation increased to 4.1 percent from 3.8 percent, marking the highest annual figures since April 2023 and October 2023, respectively. This condition has triggered market reactions that the US Federal Reserve will maintain its benchmark interest rate.
Domestically, Ibrahim assessed that the market responded positively to the government’s policy of considering further efficiency and budget cuts for the flagship Free Nutritious Meals (MBG) programme to maintain fiscal stability. Meanwhile, Bank Indonesia is aggressively strengthening market intervention through three main lines: the spot market, Domestic Non-Deliverable Forward (DNDF), and the government bond market, to dampen volatility and prevent further depreciation of the rupiah, which has recently approached the 18,000 per US dollar level.