Analysts dismiss fears of polarized political parties
Analysts dismiss fears of polarized political parties
Muhammad Nafik, The Jakarta Post, Jakarta
Analysts brushed aside on Friday fears that political parties
would be polarized into Islamic and nationalist groupings in
their struggle for power in the 2004 election.
They also said such an ideological dichotomy was "irrelevant",
arguing that the informal grouping would be only short-term in
nature, largely dependent upon the benefits it would produce for
the politicians concerned.
"Everything is still very fluid. It depends upon the existing
political interests," said rector of Jakarta's Syarif
Hidayatullah State Institute for Islamic Studies Azyumardi Azra.
Fears of political party polarization surfaced after Muslim
politicians held a series of meetings aimed at forming a loose
grouping to counter the nationalist-oriented Indonesian
Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI Perjuangan).
The grouping, which resembles the Central Axis that shattered
Megawati Soekarnoputri's bid in the 1999 presidential election,
has met at least three times since it was informally established
last month.
None of Megawati's PDI Perjuangan leaders has been invited to
the meetings. Figures from the Indonesian Military and National
Police have also been conspicuously absent.
Azyumardi said a coalition of Muslim-based parties could be
established if it accommodated the political interests of the
party leaders.
"In the current political climate, pragmatism, not ideology,
will determine a coalition," Azyumardi said. "They (the Muslim
politicians) are testing the water for a possible alliance," he
added.
In an apparent attempt to foil a possible Muslim coalition,
Megawati's husband Taufik Kiemas "broke the ice" by making an
unprecedented visit this week to ousted president Abdurrahman
Wahid, a founder of the National Awakening Party (PKB).
Senior PKB leaders, including Mahfud M.D., have joined the
Muslim grouping, while other party heavyweights, such as Alwi
Shihab, were reestablishing ties with PDI Perjuangan.
"This proves that political ideology is not relevant in the
coalition," Azyumardi said.
Noted analyst from the Centre for Strategic and International
Studies (CSIS) J. Kristiadi concurred with Azyumardi, saying that
the polarization of Islamic and national groupings had nothing to
do with the new clique of Muslim politicians.
"Such speculation should be reconsidered. It is merely
intended to manipulate something that is unrealistic. I am
worried that it could be used as a political commodity to serve
the interests of certain groups," he said.
He added that the result of the 1999 general election proved
that a political coalition based on religion was no longer
popular.
Many Muslim-based political parties won few votes, despite the
fact that Muslims account for 85 percent of Indonesia's 215
million population.
Kristiadi said a series of meetings between Muslim figures was
"normal" in politics as long as they were held in a transparent
manner.
"It is a positive thing to improve political lobbying among
politicians rather than to drag the military into politics," said
Kristiadi.
Ikrar Nusa Bhakti of Indonesian Institute of Sciences (LIPI),
however, said there were indications that the grouping was
engaging in "horse-trading" for the benefit of its members in the
2004 election.
According to Ikrar, the new political grouping was seeking to
retain power during the next election instead of fighting for the
good of the nation as a whole.
"The grouping will break up as soon as it has failed to absorb
the political interests of its respective members in the 2004
election," he said.
Citing the historical background of previous Islamic parties
in Indonesia, he said the Muslim-based political grouping would
not be able to unite and set up a coalition due to the different
interests of its constituent parties.
"The Muslim parties are potentially a strong force, but
historically, they have never managed to merge or establish a
solid alliance," Ikrar said.