Analysts dismiss fears of polarized political parties
Analysts dismiss fears of polarized political parties
Muhammad Nafik, The Jakarta Post, Jakarta
Analysts brushed aside on Friday fears that political parties would be polarized into Islamic and nationalist groupings in their struggle for power in the 2004 election.
They also said such an ideological dichotomy was "irrelevant", arguing that the informal grouping would be only short-term in nature, largely dependent upon the benefits it would produce for the politicians concerned.
"Everything is still very fluid. It depends upon the existing political interests," said rector of Jakarta's Syarif Hidayatullah State Institute for Islamic Studies Azyumardi Azra.
Fears of political party polarization surfaced after Muslim politicians held a series of meetings aimed at forming a loose grouping to counter the nationalist-oriented Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI Perjuangan).
The grouping, which resembles the Central Axis that shattered Megawati Soekarnoputri's bid in the 1999 presidential election, has met at least three times since it was informally established last month.
None of Megawati's PDI Perjuangan leaders has been invited to the meetings. Figures from the Indonesian Military and National Police have also been conspicuously absent.
Azyumardi said a coalition of Muslim-based parties could be established if it accommodated the political interests of the party leaders.
"In the current political climate, pragmatism, not ideology, will determine a coalition," Azyumardi said. "They (the Muslim politicians) are testing the water for a possible alliance," he added.
In an apparent attempt to foil a possible Muslim coalition, Megawati's husband Taufik Kiemas "broke the ice" by making an unprecedented visit this week to ousted president Abdurrahman Wahid, a founder of the National Awakening Party (PKB).
Senior PKB leaders, including Mahfud M.D., have joined the Muslim grouping, while other party heavyweights, such as Alwi Shihab, were reestablishing ties with PDI Perjuangan.
"This proves that political ideology is not relevant in the coalition," Azyumardi said.
Noted analyst from the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) J. Kristiadi concurred with Azyumardi, saying that the polarization of Islamic and national groupings had nothing to do with the new clique of Muslim politicians.
"Such speculation should be reconsidered. It is merely intended to manipulate something that is unrealistic. I am worried that it could be used as a political commodity to serve the interests of certain groups," he said.
He added that the result of the 1999 general election proved that a political coalition based on religion was no longer popular.
Many Muslim-based political parties won few votes, despite the fact that Muslims account for 85 percent of Indonesia's 215 million population.
Kristiadi said a series of meetings between Muslim figures was "normal" in politics as long as they were held in a transparent manner.
"It is a positive thing to improve political lobbying among politicians rather than to drag the military into politics," said Kristiadi.
Ikrar Nusa Bhakti of Indonesian Institute of Sciences (LIPI), however, said there were indications that the grouping was engaging in "horse-trading" for the benefit of its members in the 2004 election.
According to Ikrar, the new political grouping was seeking to retain power during the next election instead of fighting for the good of the nation as a whole.
"The grouping will break up as soon as it has failed to absorb the political interests of its respective members in the 2004 election," he said.
Citing the historical background of previous Islamic parties in Indonesia, he said the Muslim-based political grouping would not be able to unite and set up a coalition due to the different interests of its constituent parties.
"The Muslim parties are potentially a strong force, but historically, they have never managed to merge or establish a solid alliance," Ikrar said.