Analyst Warns JCI Could Hit Critical 4,000 Level by End of June 2026

The Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) continued its decline, dropping 140 points or 2.50 per cent to the 5,453 level during trading on Monday, 8 June 2026, at approximately 11:15 WIB.

Economic and money market analyst Ibrahim Assuaibi predicts that the JCI could further weaken to a critical level of 4,000 by the end of June 2026. “For the Jakarta Composite Index, it is highly likely to move towards the critical level of 4,000 by the end of this June,” Ibrahim stated in a voice message received on Monday, 8 June 2026.

He explained that this downward trend is partly caused by uncertainty surrounding the possibility of MSCI downgrading stocks in the capital market from emerging market to frontier market status. “Although we know that MSCI will only announce this in mid-June, it has already caused significant declines in both the Rupiah and the JCI,” he noted.

Furthermore, Ibrahim acknowledged that the significant weakening trend of the Rupiah has contributed to capital outflows from the domestic stock exchange. “We must recognise that in today’s trading, there is a massive capital outflow in the capital market due to the plummeting Rupiah,” said Ibrahim.

He added that various efforts undertaken by the government, including the Ministry of Finance, Bank Indonesia (BI), and the Financial Services Authority (OJK) to intervene and bolster the exchange rate of the Rupiah and the JCI, have yet to show significant results. According to him, the interventions by these three entities in the financial market, including the government’s bond auctions, could be described as a total failure, as both the Rupiah and the JCI continue to weaken. “The government’s bond auctions have failed completely. This is what is causing the continued weakening of both the JCI and the Rupiah,” he concluded.