Analyst: Rupiah Remains Under Domestic and External Pressure
Jakarta (ANTARA) – Doo Financial analyst Lukman Leong said the rupiah remained under both domestic and external pressure, as the currency weakened against the US dollar at the start of trading on Monday.
The rupiah fell by eight points, or 0.04 per cent, to Rp18,035 per US dollar, from the previous close of Rp18,027.
“The rupiah is expected to remain under domestic and external pressure, although sanctions by the Financial Services Authority (OJK) and the Indonesia Stock Exchange (BEI) hearing may help restore market confidence,” he told ANTARA in Jakarta on Monday.
Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) has issued a consultation report on the potential reclassification of Indonesia’s stock market. It has proposed changing Indonesia’s status from Emerging Market (EM) to Standalone Market. Market participants may submit feedback until 30 April 2027, with a final decision expected before 30 June 2027.
MSCI said market participants had reported that, to date, there had not been sufficiently consistent progress across Indonesia’s equity market. It also highlighted significant concerns about market dysfunction, including alleged coordinated trading and a lack of evidence of meaningful enforcement.
In response, OJK imposed sanctions and administrative fines totalling Rp2.1 trillion on three listed companies: PT Dian Swastatika Sentosa Tbk (DSSA), PT Barito Renewables Energy Tbk (BREN) and PT Petrindo Jaya Kreasi Tbk (CUAN). The penalties followed an examination into alleged violations in Indonesia’s capital market.
OJK said it had found indications of stock-trading manipulation involving DSSA, as well as violations in the public offering processes of BREN and CUAN.
BEI has also changed the lower auto-rejection limit for shares to an asymmetric 7 per cent from 15 per cent, effective from 19 October to 31 December 2026. The policy, supported by OJK, is intended to ensure securities trading remains orderly, fair and efficient, while curbing market volatility.
Under the new rules, the 7 per cent lower limit applies to shares priced above Rp10 up to Rp200, above Rp200 up to Rp5,000, and above Rp5,000.
On the global front, sentiment towards the rupiah has been affected by escalating tensions in the Middle East/West Asia and the Russia-Ukraine war, which have sent global oil prices higher and added pressure to the currency.
“In the Middle East, Iran’s attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz, and in Europe, Russia and Ukraine’s increased attacks on oil facilities, are factors,” Lukman said.
Taking these factors into account, the rupiah is forecast to trade between Rp17,950 and Rp18,100 per US dollar.