Analyst Projects IHSG in 7,000-8,000 Range for Second Half of 2026

Capital market analyst Elandry Pratama projects the Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) will move in the 7,000 to 8,000 range during the second half of 2026. “Assuming global conditions do not experience significant shocks and capital flow remains intact,” Elandry said when contacted in Jakarta on Monday. Elandry projects the Indonesian stock market still has the potential to move positively, with volatility remaining high in the second half of 2026. “The prospect of global interest rate cuts, domestic inflation stability, and expectations for Indonesia’s economic growth are factors supporting market sentiment,” Elandry said. However, he continued, the IHSG’s movement is unlikely to be linear, as investors will continue to monitor developments in global trade policy and the policy direction of major central banks. “As well as geopolitical dynamics that can affect risk appetite and capital flow,” Elandry said. From the global side, he explained that investor attention will be focused on the direction of the Fed’s interest rate policy, developments in United States inflation, trade tariff policy negotiations, and China’s economic conditions. “As well as geopolitical tensions that can affect capital flows to developing countries,” Elandry said. Domestically, he cited the main sentiment coming from the sustainability of economic growth, realisation of government spending, rupiah exchange rate stability, inflation data, and the earnings performance of listed companies. “As well as the consistency of government policy which is expected to increasingly support the investment climate, maintain regulatory certainty, and encourage business activity, so as to increase liquidity and investor confidence,” Elandry said. Meanwhile, for the rupiah exchange rate, Elandry projects it will be in the range of 16,800 to 17,500 per US dollar until the end of 2026. “Supported by relatively stable domestic fundamentals although it remains sensitive to US dollar movements,” Elandry said. As of Monday’s trading close, the IHSG on a calendar year or year-to-date basis had fallen 2,730.87 points, or 31.58 percent, to 5,916.07. In Monday’s trading session, the IHSG closed up 40.29 points, or 0.69 percent, at 5,916.07. The LQ45 index of 45 leading stocks rose 2.70 points, or 0.46 percent, to 584.48.