Analyst Predicts Rupiah Could Weaken to 19,000
Ibrahim Assuaibi, Director of PT Traze Andalan Futures, predicts that the Rupiah exchange rate could continue to weaken, potentially reaching 19,000 per US Dollar by the end of the month. “At the end of June, there is a very high probability, 99.99 per cent, that it will be at 19,000 per US Dollar,” Ibrahim stated via voice message on Sunday, 7 June 2026.
For transactions during the coming week, he expects the Rupiah to trade within the range of 17,950–18,250 per US Dollar. He noted that the trend of the Rupiah weakening to historic lows will persist if geopolitical volatility continues and the US Federal Reserve maintains or increases interest rates.
Ibrahim also anticipates the US Dollar Index will find support at 99.00 and resistance at 101.00, suggesting a possibility of a sharp resurgence in the dollar’s strength. He noted that a strengthening dollar would significantly impact rising oil prices, a weaker Rupiah, and a slump in gold and precious metal prices. He expects West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude to trade between a support level of US$ 85 per barrel and a resistance level of US$ 101 per barrel.
He identified three primary factors driving the fluctuations in the dollar index and precious metal values. The first is geopolitics, specifically the potential for conflict between the United States and Iran. Ibrahim noted that tensions in the Middle East have escalated after the US targeted several Iranian-monitored areas in the Strait of Hormuz, including Qeshm Island. He expressed doubt that any ceasefire between the US and Iran would be long-lasting, noting that the US has indicated significant damage to its Middle Eastern airbases and may utilise Iranian assets, signalling an intent to exert control over Iran which could trigger a larger war.
The second factor is the political climate in the United States. Ibrahim explained that while the Republican Party won a Congressional session to halt war spending, President Donald Trump has continued military actions despite Congressional disapproval of the budget. This refusal to cut funding has not deterred Trump from pursuing conflict with Iran.
The final driver is Federal Reserve policy. Ibrahim predicts the US central bank is likely to maintain high interest rates and potentially implement a 25-basis-point hike in the third quarter of this year. Beyond weakening the Rupiah, these high rates are expected to cause precious metal prices to plummet. Ibrahim added that falling precious metal prices are prompting Indonesians to purchase US Dollars, further strengthening the dollar and weakening the Rupiah. He even warned that the Rupiah could weaken to 25,000 per US Dollar by the end of the year if the Middle East conflict remains unresolved, stating that a recovery might not be seen until the end of 2027.