Analyst Predicts Exchange Rate of Rupiah at the End of May

Director of PT Traze Andalan Futures, Ibrahim Assuaibi, predicts that the Rupiah exchange rate will reach Rp 18,000 per US dollar in May 2026. On Friday morning, 15 May 2026, the Rupiah weakened to Rp 17,600 per US dollar.

“If it breaks through Rp 18,000 this month, there is a high probability that the Rupiah will reach Rp 22,000,” said Ibrahim in a statement on Friday, 15 May 2026.

He believes that the last two days, Thursday, 14 May and Friday, 15 May, are a test for Indonesia. This is because, during the trading holiday, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to escalate.

Meanwhile, Ibrahim said that Bank Indonesia can only intervene in the international market during the holiday period. Therefore, the impact of external pressures on the Rupiah is greater. However, he believes that the situation may be different when trading resumes on Monday, 18 May 2026.

From an external perspective, Ibrahim said that the strengthening of the US dollar is influenced by the direction of monetary policy or The Federal Reserve (The Fed). The Fed is expected not to lower interest rates throughout 2026 due to a significant increase in US inflation.

Meanwhile, from an internal perspective, Ibrahim highlighted the significant pressure on the State Budget (APBN). This is because the weakening of the Rupiah has an impact on the surge in oil subsidy spending.

If the Rupiah breaks through the level of Rp 18,000 per US dollar or even Rp 22,000 per US dollar, Ibrahim predicts that Bank Indonesia will raise the benchmark interest rate or BI-Rate in June. “It could be (an increase) of 25 to 50 basis points, with the aim of stabilising the Rupiah,” he said.

Disclaimer: This news is not intended to encourage readers to speculate on buying or selling Rupiah. The decision is entirely in the hands of the reader.