Analyst predicts election boycotters to reach 20 million

JAKARTA (JP): A political analyst predicted yesterday that up to 20 million people would boycott the upcoming general election, despite the government's persistent call on the public to vote.

Arbi Sanit of the Jakarta-based University of Indonesia said the public's growing discontent over the current election rules and the political system as a whole, was the main reason for the non-voting behavior.

The internal conflict within the minority Indonesian Democratic Party (PDI) is also responsible for magnifying the number of poll abstainers, according to Arbi.

He said supporters of the dethroned PDI chairwoman Megawati Soekarnoputri would prefer to shun the election because their representatives were rejected by the government. Arbi estimated that Megawati loyalists make up seven million of the party's 20 million voters.

Poll abstainers have never reached 10 percent in the previous five general elections. The government has always urged eligible voters to use their rights.

This year's election will fall on May 29, pitting the PDI against fellow minority the United Development Party (PPP) and the dominant political group Golkar.

A poll conducted by the University of Indonesia's student club Eka Prasetya found that 48.7 percent of 1,000 respondents would not exercise their voting rights.

A previous survey conducted by students of Yogyakarta's Gadjah Mada University revealed that 36 percent of 500 respondents would boycott the election. In February, a poll by the Malang, East Java branch of the National Committee of Indonesian Youths revealed that 92.7 percent of local youths would not vote.

Arbi said many would-be poll boycotters were upset by the current political system, which they added had failed to respond to their aspirations.

"Look at the legislative candidates who are virtually strangers to the public. Their names appear on the list only because of their close relation to certain government officials," Arbi said.

He added the general election has been reduced to becoming a government tool to legitimize itself, but fails to serve as a mechanism to ensure regular succession of the national leadership.

The government's quest for legitimacy has caused it to place too much burden on the implementation of the general election. It is also the reason why the government is anxious to have high turnout rates on polling day, he said.

Arbi said the government should not worry about poll boycotters. Instead, he suggested, the government should find the blessing in disguise.

"The government should open its door for criticism and allow students to hold political activities on campus," he said. The government banned political activities on campus in 1978.

In Surabaya, East Java military commander Maj. Gen. Imam Utomo said security authorities would take harsh measures against students who stage rallies in support of poll boycotting outside their campuses.

Imam was commenting on recent rallies held by thousands of East Java students at the Airlangga University in Surabaya, Malang's Brawijaya University, Jember University in Jember and Darul Ulum University in Jombang. They paraded posters and banners inscribed with statements snubbing the election.

"We allow them (the students) to stage demonstrations within their campuses. They are not many, in fact," Imam said, adding that he wanted to talk with the students to know their reasons for boycotting the polling day. (nur/amd)