Analyst Links Indonesian Military Alert Status Reduction to Global Conflict Threat Response

Jakarta — Ngasiman Djoyonegoro, an intelligence, security and defence analyst and Executive Director of the Center of Intelligence and Strategic Studies (CISS), has stated that the Indonesian military’s downgrade of alert status represents a response to intelligence assessments of the level of global conflict threat.

According to Ngasiman, the decision was based on the assessment that the risk of sovereignty violations and the possibility of regional conflict expanding were substantial, which necessitated the TNI implementing Alert Level 1 as a security response to safeguard national security.

“The downgrade of alert status depends on the level of threat that may arise. If intelligence information, which forms the basis for decision-making, reveals a high risk of sovereignty violations and a high likelihood of occurrence, then Alert Level 1 would be initiated. Thus it follows the threat level,” Ngasiman told ANTARA when contacted in Jakarta on Friday.

Ngasiman was responding to the TNI’s downgrade from Alert Level 1 to Alert Level 3, announced by Army Information Chief Brigadier General Donny Pramono in Jakarta on Thursday (12 March), with Alert Level 3 established as a security measure during the Eid al-Fitr period.

Ngasiman’s assessment regarding the global conflict threat was based on his monitoring of reports that the USS Abraham Lincoln had departed the combat zone with navigation system damage while in proximity to Indonesian maritime zones.

“So my analysis is that Alert Level 1 was applied for this reason. For more details, one could directly request an explanation from TNI headquarters,” he stated.

Furthermore, he warned that the threat would have impacts in the coming days, with war spillover directed towards Indonesian waters, particularly following the escalation of tensions involving armed contact in the Strait of Hormuz.

“This is what must be monitored — the direct military impact,” he added.

Previously, Army Information Chief Brigadier General Donny Pramono stated that the TNI Army was currently implementing Alert Level 3 following its earlier implementation of Alert Level 1, in accordance with a directive from the TNI Commander on Thursday.

According to Pramono, the implementation of Alert Level 1 or Level 3 by the TNI Army was not in response to conflict situations or warfare in any particular region.

Alert Level 3, according to Pramono, was implemented as part of the concept of strengthening troop readiness to secure the territory during the Eid al-Fitr period.

“We are implementing Alert Level 3 also because we will be conducting Eid al-Fitr activities,” Pramono said when meeting with media representatives at Army headquarters.