Analyst: Financial Performance to Determine Mining Stock Movement

Financial performance exceeding expectations could trigger short-term stock price appreciation. Senior Market Analyst at Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia, Nafan Aji Gusta, stated that the financial report performance for the second quarter of 2026 will be a key catalyst determining the direction of mining sector stocks. He explained that investors will scrutinise the impact of improved global commodity prices during this period on the margins and profitability of mining issuers.

“Issuers with better operational efficiency and strong business diversification have the potential to receive a more positive market response. Financial performance that exceeds expectations can also trigger stock price strengthening in the short term,” Nafan said in a statement released in Jakarta. Nafan observed that mining stocks, including state-owned enterprise (SOE) mining stocks, have begun to rebound, though the strengthening remains selective and has not yet formed a full upward trend. For SOE mining stocks, investors will continue to monitor financial reports, progress in mineral downstreaming projects, capital expenditure (capex) trends, and the future demand prospects for nickel and coal. “If realised performance can exceed market expectations, the opportunity for stock price appreciation remains open,” added Nafan.

Concurrently, research from BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) projects that revenues for metal mining issuers in the second quarter of 2026 will reach US$4.5 billion, representing a 12 per cent growth quarter-on-quarter (qoq) and a 38 per cent growth year-on-year (yoy). However, this increase is viewed as not yet reflecting a widespread recovery in production volume, but rather being supported by factors such as selling prices, timing of sales, inventory movements, and product mix. “However, for the second-half 2026 outlook, our preference shifts to ANTM, TINS, AMMN, INCO, NCKL, MBMA, and BRMS,” according to the BRIDS research.

Notably, several mining sector stocks recorded gains over the past month up to the close of the first trading session on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) on Friday. These include PT Amman Mineral Internasional Tbk (AMMN) rising 33.55 per cent to 4,140, and PT Merdeka Battery Materials Tbk (MBMA) rising 8.23 per cent to 500. Other notable gainers include PT Trimegah Bangun Persada Tbk (NCKL) up 14.74 per cent to 895, PT Bumi Resources Minerals Tbk (BRMS) up 18.14 per cent to 560, and PT Aneka Tambang Tbk (ANTM) up 10.81 per cent to 2,870. Additionally, PT Vale Indonesia Tbk (INCO) rose 28.03 per cent to 5,275, PT Bukit Asam Tbk (PTBA) rose 2.62 per cent to 2,350, and PT Timah Tbk (TINS) rose 14.98 per cent to 3,760. Further gains were seen in PT Alamtri Resources Indonesia Tbk (ADRO) up 10.18 per cent to 2,490, PT Darma Henwa Tbk (DEWA) up 63.68 per cent to 464, PT Rukun Raharja Tbk (RAJA) up 25.00 per cent to 900, PT Medco Energi Internasional Tbk (MEDC) up 25.37 per cent to 1,285, and PT Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk (ITMG) up 12.26 per cent to 24,725.