Analysing the Phenomenon of Declining Applicants for Government-Affiliated Colleges

Registration for government-affiliated colleges officially closed on 30 August 2026. As a result, the total number of applicants has generally declined compared to 2025. While the number of applicants reached approximately 141,000 in 2025, that figure dropped to around 120,000 in 2026. This has raised the question: are government-affiliated colleges no longer in demand?

Currently, various issues are circulating regarding the government’s ability to maintain the continuity of civil servant salary payments. Additionally, the phenomenon of civil servants resigning has also drawn significant attention. While news of civil servants resigning is not a common phenomenon in the Indonesian bureaucracy, a closer look suggests that these two issues may not be entirely linked to the declining trend in interest in government-affiliated colleges.

Regarding the government’s ability to pay civil servant salaries, this issue could indeed be a factor influencing the desire to become a state servant. However, this problem does not occur uniformly across all regions. The issue is more prevalent in certain areas, particularly local governments with limited fiscal space. The problem is not merely that local governments cannot afford to pay employees; rather, several local governments are facing pressure to adjust their personnel expenditure structures as a consequence of implementing the Law on Financial Relations between the Central Government and Regional Governments (UU HKPD), specifically regarding the maximum allocation for personnel expenditure in regional budgets.

Therefore, the emerging issue relates more to fiscal space and the adjustment of regional expenditure composition rather than a general inability of the government to pay civil servant salaries. Meanwhile, at the central government level, no such phenomenon is occurring, even though expenditure efficiency policies also apply centrally. Given that graduates of government-affiliated colleges are prospective officials who will mostly serve in central government institutions, the relevance of the issue regarding the government’s ability to pay salaries to the decision of prospective students to apply is not entirely accurate.

While the phenomenon of civil servants resigning is occurring and the numbers are significant—reaching 2,722 employees—this figure is relatively small when compared to the total number of civil servants, which reaches approximately 6.7 million people.

So, what is the most logical cause for the decline in applicants for government-affiliated colleges? It appears that competition for prospective students between state universities and government-affiliated colleges has entered an increasingly competitive stage. One indicator is the recruitment schedule for government-affiliated colleges, which takes place after most of the independent admission processes (jalur mandiri) at state universities have concluded.

This creates a ‘switching cost’ issue that minimises the likelihood of state university students switching to government-affiliated colleges after the independent track results are announced. The independent track is a vital source of revenue for many state universities, with student allocations reaching 30 to 50 per cent of available seats, depending on the institution’s status. As a revenue source, universities want students admitted through this track to complete their re-registration. To maintain optimal occupancy, if a student withdraws, universities use strategies such as opening subsequent independent admission phases.

This presents a dilemma for prospective students. After re-registering at a state university, paying the development fees (IPI) and tuition fees (UKT) becomes a gamble for those still hoping to try their luck in the government-affiliated college selection. Attempting to enter a government-affiliated college means sacrificing part or all of the fees already paid to the state university. This amount is certainly not small for most families, and the funds could be lost if the student is accepted into a government-affiliated college and chooses to move.

This appears to be the most logical explanation for the shrinking number of applicants. The decline does not necessarily mean that the prospects of becoming a civil servant or the appeal of working in the government sector have diminished. Income for graduates of government-affiliated colleges does not seem to be a significant deterrent. Although not all ministries and agencies have adjusted their performance allowances (tunjangan kinerja), the overall take-home pay for civil servants remains relatively competitive compared to the average income of university graduates. According to BPS data, the average income for university graduates in August 2025 was around Rp4.8 million. Meanwhile, the total income for graduates of government-affiliated colleges, comprising basic salary and various allowances, still has the potential to exceed that figure, although amounts vary by institution.