Amran Assures Rice Supply Remains Secure Despite Godzilla El Niño Hitting Indonesia, Here's Why

The government has assured that the national rice stock remains surplus despite the threat of an extreme El Niño, dubbed “Godzilla”, expected to hit starting in April for the next six months. Agriculture Minister Amran Sulaiman emphasised that the current conditions are far better prepared than during the 2023 El Niño.

“The Godzilla El Niño starts next month, in April, and is expected to last six months. Insha’Allah, food supplies, especially in the food sector, are secure. Why? In 2023, there was also an El Niño that was no less severe or devastating,” said Amran when met at his office in Jakarta on Monday (30/3/2026).

He explained that experience from facing the previous El Niño has become a crucial asset for strengthening preparedness, particularly through accelerating infrastructure and water management.

“We have carried out pompanisation, irrigation, and oplah (land optimisation). Alhamdulillah, it succeeded, and in the following year, we accelerated it, so the infrastructure to face El Niño is far better now. Pompanisation, with tens of thousands of pumps in the field, has been installed, and the pump irrigation is already operational,” he stated.

In addition, the optimisation of swamp land (oplah) and the development of irrigation continue to be enhanced.

“Then, oplah, which is referred to as oplah, means swamps that used to be planted once can now be planted three times, or twice can become three times. The irrigation is already good, and the Ministry of Public Works is ready with 1 million hectares, and this year another 1 million. The target is to complete 2 million hectares of irrigation, so our preparations are very good,” he explained.

From the reserve side, Amran noted that the current rice stock is at its highest level.

“Today’s stock is the highest, at 4.3 million tonnes. Next month, Bulog’s (Government Rice Reserves/GRP) stock is projected to exceed 5 million tonnes, meaning it’s secure,” said Amran.

Overall, the national rice reserves, including Bulog’s stock, Horeka (hotels, restaurants, and catering), and standing crops, are estimated to reach around 27 million tonnes, sufficient to meet needs for up to 10 months ahead.

“So first, Bulog’s stock, Horeka stock at 12.5 million tonnes, then standing crops around 11 million tonnes. Total around 27 million tonnes. If divided, it can last for 10 months ahead,” he said.

Even at the peak of El Niño, production is still projected to continue.

“Plus the lowest production if drought occurs is 2 million tonnes. During the dry season of the Godzilla El Niño and beyond, production is 12 million tonnes. So it can supply for 15 months (national rice supply), until March (2027),” he clarified.

With these conditions, Amran assured that food price stability will be maintained at the consumer level.

“Prices, insha’Allah, will be stable,” he stressed.

Regarding potential disruptions to the planting calendar, he acknowledged there is a risk, but it is relatively small due to adequate infrastructure support.

“Yes, there is potential for disruption, but also potential for no disruption. The potential for disruption is maybe only 2-5 percent. The potential for success is 90 percent. Why? The infrastructure is already in place,” said Amran.

He also emphasised that the impact of this El Niño will not be prolonged because the foundation of food security is increasingly strong.

“Oh no, our infrastructure is getting stronger. And our stock could reach over 3 million tonnes by the end of the year. It could head towards 4 million tonnes,” he concluded.