Amien's recurring paradigm shift puzzling

By Rahayu Ratnaningsih

JAKARTA (JP): Amien Rais, recently elected Chairman of the People's Consultative Assembly by less than 50 percent of the votes (something worth noting for those keen on using the 'absolute majority' argument to stop Megawati Soekarnoputri becoming president), seems simply to be a Muslim fundamentalist, according to a reliable source.

His sudden paradigm shift during the time of his party's genesis puzzled both his traditional Muslim-based supporters and others as well. At that time he stated that "the Islamic outfit was too small for him", so he started the National Awakening Party (PAN) as an open party based on nationalism, though still with his alma mater, Muhammadiyah, as its support base.

After his party's shocking loss in the election, he's now once again wearing that "Islamic outfit" by forming the "axis force" with other Islamic parties. This should be no surprise for anyone familiar with his unreliability and inconsistency.

On the one hand, he has realized that only by shedding his exclusive Islamic label can he be accepted by everyone -- including the Muslims, who are themselves mostly secular -- and become one of the national leaders. On the other he is still unsure about this new self image.

Unfortunately, this unpopular move has cost him his reputation, even though current trends suggest that the axis force is gaining strength. Three months after it was first declared, public response is still so unenthusiastic that even his number one man in the party Faisal Basri and other PAN members from the secular nationalist side see him, and his move, with unrepressed contempt.

In one recent seminar in Jakarta, Faisal stated with his trademark eloquence that according to the electoral results, it is clear that the Indonesian people are currently not veering towards either the left (Islamic parties) or the right (socialist parties), unlike in the 1955 election in which Islamic parties such as Masyumi and Nahdlatul Ulama dominated the voting.

Indonesian people since then have clearly opted for non- sectarian politics, so that those parties with inclusive nationalism as their ideology have won around 80 percent of the votes. It is clear, he continued, that selling Islam as a label is no longer in demand.

Indonesian people choose the "middle way", he said, and he quickly reminded the audience who were laughing that this "middle way" was not in anyway the same as the axis force. The axis force, he continued, is basically a third force which is rooted in sectarian politics, in this case of the Islamic variety. It was dwelling in futility by attempting to "sell rejected merchandise".

This movement is also deceiving to the voters, he added, and could happen because of the political elite's inexorable "libido for power".

Everyone can predict that although on the surface the axis force seems to relegate Habibie -- by "requesting" him to reconsider his nomination for the presidency -- if another scenario occurs (namely if Gus Dur retracts his nomination or fails in the first round election) the presidency will definitely go to Habibie if Amien doesn't actually run for presidency himself (which is a strong possibility, knowing his ego and wishy-washy mentality).

Many analysts have commented on the axis force, saying it is an unreal power, unsustained by grass-root support and as having an unclear agenda. It is simply a castle built on sand, the product of an impulsive reaction stemming from the disappointment of its founders' at their election loss.

These critics, including many Nahdlatul Ulama clerics and the National Awakening Party (PKB) president Matori Abdul Djalil, who is clear on his and his party's support for Megawati, have questioned the seriousness and motive of the axis force's nomination of Gus Dur for the next presidency.

Especially when so far it is only Amien himself who appears keen on this nomination, while his colleagues in the axis force appear reluctant to declare their open support.

What Amien shouldn't forget is, a few days prior to the June election, he was the one who rushed to see Gus Dur and Megawati to ask them to work together in resisting the status quo. He declared loud and clear that he would support which ever party was the winner of the election, and that this support would continue to its candidate to be the next president also.

Ironically, Matori, who wasn't as loud as Amien before the election, has proved himself to be much more reliable and "big" enough to transcend his and his group's interest for the sake of upholding the people's sovereignty. This even after Amien has repeatedly -- and shamelessly -- questioned his commitment for Megawati instead of Gus Dur. Two thumbs up for the shining newly born statesman.

Although he was defeated by Amien in the election for the Speaker of the People's Consultative Assembly, one can't help but notice, that from now on he will be seen as one of the rare politicians with a heart in this country, a category of which Amien has unfortunately thrown himself out from.

In retrospect, people have speculated that in the past Amien was so sure that he would win the election that it was mandatory for him to get everyone's commitment. Various polls showed his party's popularity to be over PDI Perjuangan (Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle) and Golkar. When victory didn't materialize, he was thrown into phases of apparent submission, depression and resistance.

He mentioned one of the reasons he couldn't support Megawati for presidency was because of the latter's opposition to East Timor's independence. This was in contradiction to his own views published in Risalah magazine in August 1996.

There he clearly argued against the idea of an independent East Timor. He described Bishop Carlos Felipe Ximenes Belo as a politician controlled by foreign agents, and that the independence movement showed a shameful lack of gratitude to the Indonesian people and their government's kindness.

The way he viewed the West, the IMF and World Bank was also far from rosy. He repeatedly called them a manifestation of neo- Imperialism or the capitalist machine. About the West, especially the United States, his view was shared by fundamentalist Muslims around the globe that the Christian West was conspiring to destroy Islam. His other writings in Risalah were hostile to secularism, branding it "poison to the (Islamic) faith".

He didn't hide his tolerance of Saddam Hussein -- calling him a rational leader at one point during the Gulf Crisis -- neither of the militant Hamas and the Islamic Jihad movement. Following the then nauseating New Order administration's repressive stance, he labeled Budiman Soedjatmiko's Democratic People Party (PRD) which also contested the recent election, as containing extremely serious symptoms of communism revivalism illness.

If in the last campaign he was eager in voicing his egalitarian view regarding the ethnic Chinese issue, his earlier writings didn't reflect that at all.

Moreover, in mid March this year, he paid a visit to US State Secretary Madeleine Albright, IMF and World Bank officers.

What was even more odd was the fact that he even "invited" the US to conduct a "moral intervention" to help overcoming the Ambon crisis a while ago. This drastic paradigm shift from anti-America (West) to an "America lover" inevitably drew a surge of harsh criticism from his Muslim supporters.

A lot of PAN voters have expressed disappointment at his current move which they think could endanger the change process that has proved to be painfully slow and costly, even without such suicidal maneuvering. This, once again, serves to show the political elite's gross lack of maturity and sense of priority.

If the PKB, which is also heavily Islamic, can stay firm to its commitment to join hands with the winning party, PDI Perjuangan, to fight the status quo, what is stopping PAN, which has promoted itself as a cross-ethnic and cross-religious party, to do the same? Megawati, who wasn't known to be especially friendly with Matori and the PKB, now seems to get along well with him. What makes Amien so childishly upset other than his lack of maturity?

The fact that Amien proposed Gus Dur, Nahdlatul Ulama's most revered leader who is also PKB's figure head, as president posed an unnecessary and unfair test for the PKB; to choose between being loyal to their patron or to their principles.

This is of course is not an easy choice. What happened was that Matori had to get his colleagues to take an Islamic pledge of loyalty to their early commitment of upholding democracy, which is more important that patriarchal loyalty.

This surely can be seen as a divide and conquer tactic from Amien, but to what end and to what cost? We can only hope that Gus Dur will soon enough come to his senses, as he was once known as a very sensible man, to identify this unhealthy game and opt to free himself from a certain power broker's dirty political maneuvering. We will know the answer in the no doubt nerve- racking coming days.