Amien warns against great economic hopes

Amien warns against great economic hopes

SINGAPORE (Dow Jones): Indonesian opposition leader Amien Rais
warned Tuesday against inflated economic expectations if a "clean
and grand coalition" government replaces the current government
in elections slated for June.

"The economic future in Indonesia is still...very, very
gloomy," he said in a lecture delivered in Singapore. "There is
no guarantee at all that a new government based on democratic
elections will be able to overcome the very difficult monetary
and economic problems."

Rais, general chairman of the National Mandate Party, said
there is a danger that if a new government is empowered, then
unmet expectations for a quick cure to the country's economic
ills could trigger new problems.

Rais said he expects elections scheduled for June to be held
as planned because the risk of postponement would be too great.

"I believe that there is no political group in Indonesia that
dares enough to cancel the election," he said, addressing
Singapore's Institute for Defense and Strategic Studies.

If the elections were postponed "then the future would be
much, much, much worse," he said. "Not just the students, but the
people would run amok."

Despite believing the elections will be held on time, Rais
said there are "strong rumors that those who instigated crimes
against humanity in different parts of Indonesia have political
goals."

These goals include canceling the election and giving the
military an excuse to take power, he said.

"This is still a rumor, but it sounds rather reasonable," he
continued.

Indonesia's Parliament is set to vote on the electoral laws -
which pave the way for the elections - on Friday. Once Parliament
approves the laws, President B.J. Habibie has to enact them.

There has been some speculation in Parliament that the laws
wouldn't be passed on time, which could threaten the election
timetable, although legislators say now that is less likely.

The elections, the first under Indonesia's new electoral law
system, are slated for June 7, while a new president will be
elected and in place by November.

Parliamentary committees are reviewing the electoral
legislation this week.

Pressing ahead with new elections is seen as crucial to help
meet student demands for change and result in a new, fairly
elected, legislature.

The opposition politician also repeated his call for
Indonesian military chief Gen. Wiranto to resign because he's
failed to make any arrests in connection with recent rioting and
killings.

With his sophisticated intelligence-gathering apparatus,
Wiranto has a good idea who's behind the unrest, Rais claimed.
"Gen. Wiranto knows exactly what's going on, and he's become part
of the problem," he said.

Rais promised to appoint members of the Chinese minority to
his Cabinet if elected and help reduce tensions against the
Chinese, many of whom are resented for their relative wealth and
often targeted in times of trouble.

He suggested that opening other opportunities for Chinese to
participate in Indonesian society will reduce their tendency to
"monopolize the business world."

He said his party's economic policy would be modeled on that
of South Africa after Nelson Mandela became president following
decades of minority white domination of the economy and political
system.

Rais mentioned that the Mandela government hadn't disbanded
the large conglomerates, but produced regulations ensuring that
they operated fairly. At the same time, he said, the Mandela
government initiated policies to build up small businesses and
improve the lives of the poor.