Amien warns against great economic hopes

Amien warns against great economic hopes

SINGAPORE (Dow Jones): Indonesian opposition leader Amien Rais warned Tuesday against inflated economic expectations if a "clean and grand coalition" government replaces the current government in elections slated for June.

"The economic future in Indonesia is still...very, very gloomy," he said in a lecture delivered in Singapore. "There is no guarantee at all that a new government based on democratic elections will be able to overcome the very difficult monetary and economic problems."

Rais, general chairman of the National Mandate Party, said there is a danger that if a new government is empowered, then unmet expectations for a quick cure to the country's economic ills could trigger new problems.

Rais said he expects elections scheduled for June to be held as planned because the risk of postponement would be too great.

"I believe that there is no political group in Indonesia that dares enough to cancel the election," he said, addressing Singapore's Institute for Defense and Strategic Studies.

If the elections were postponed "then the future would be much, much, much worse," he said. "Not just the students, but the people would run amok."

Despite believing the elections will be held on time, Rais said there are "strong rumors that those who instigated crimes against humanity in different parts of Indonesia have political goals."

These goals include canceling the election and giving the military an excuse to take power, he said.

"This is still a rumor, but it sounds rather reasonable," he continued.

Indonesia's Parliament is set to vote on the electoral laws - which pave the way for the elections - on Friday. Once Parliament approves the laws, President B.J. Habibie has to enact them.

There has been some speculation in Parliament that the laws wouldn't be passed on time, which could threaten the election timetable, although legislators say now that is less likely.

The elections, the first under Indonesia's new electoral law system, are slated for June 7, while a new president will be elected and in place by November.

Parliamentary committees are reviewing the electoral legislation this week.

Pressing ahead with new elections is seen as crucial to help meet student demands for change and result in a new, fairly elected, legislature.

The opposition politician also repeated his call for Indonesian military chief Gen. Wiranto to resign because he's failed to make any arrests in connection with recent rioting and killings.

With his sophisticated intelligence-gathering apparatus, Wiranto has a good idea who's behind the unrest, Rais claimed. "Gen. Wiranto knows exactly what's going on, and he's become part of the problem," he said.

Rais promised to appoint members of the Chinese minority to his Cabinet if elected and help reduce tensions against the Chinese, many of whom are resented for their relative wealth and often targeted in times of trouble.

He suggested that opening other opportunities for Chinese to participate in Indonesian society will reduce their tendency to "monopolize the business world."

He said his party's economic policy would be modeled on that of South Africa after Nelson Mandela became president following decades of minority white domination of the economy and political system.

Rais mentioned that the Mandela government hadn't disbanded the large conglomerates, but produced regulations ensuring that they operated fairly. At the same time, he said, the Mandela government initiated policies to build up small businesses and improve the lives of the poor.