Americans flock to bet on a nuclear bomb exploding this year

Americans are flocking to place bets predicting that a nuclear bomb will explode before 2027. The money staked has already surpassed US$830,000, or around Rp14 billion. The bets are placed via the crypto-based ‘prediction market’ platform Polymarket. The Wall Street Journal reported that the popularity of the nuclear explosion prediction market surged after the United States bombed Iran. The nuclear explosion prediction market has been on Polymarket since November last year. At the time, according to Futurism, Polymarket’s official account on the X platform even promoted it, noting there was a 22 per cent chance of a nuclear explosion this year. Interest in the bets surged after the United States launched bombing strikes on Iran. The United States and Israel have bombarded Iran since the weekend. The strikes killed Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Before the US strikes on Iran, the value of the bets on ‘nuclear explosion’ for 2027 was only US$10,000, or Rp169 million. By Tuesday, daily trading volume had surpassed US$244,000, or Rp4.14 billion, bringing the total stakes to US$830,000. However, Polymarket has discreetly removed the market from its platform. The removal is notable because the platform typically allows controversial bets even amid criticism. Six Polymarket accounts managed to rake in US$1.2 million (Rp27 billion) by betting on the timing of US military strikes on Iran. Strangely, all those accounts were created only hours before the US bombed Iran. According to Bloomberg, the six accounts were created in February. The only activity on Polymarket for these accounts was betting that United States President Donald Trump would attack Iran. Similar betting activity also occurred when Trump kidnapped Nicolas Maduro of Venezuela.