Alliance for change

The emergence of a new political alliance, albeit unofficially, between supporters of the ousted Indonesian Democratic Party (PDI) chief Megawati Soekarnoputri and the United Development Party (PPP) is probably about the only surprise anyone can expect from this year's general election. It defies the predictability of an election system that was designed in such a way as to make major surprises unlikely. Not surprisingly, therefore, when PPP supporters appeared last week at the party's various campaign meetings in T-shirts bearing Megawati's picture, many people became hot under the collars.

The PPP leadership in Jakarta appears to be uncomfortable to have been associated with Megawati, yet they know that they will benefit from this partnership come polling day on May 29. In contrast, some PPP leaders in the regions, who will have to get the votes, are more receptive, and are encouraging Megawati supporters to join their election campaigns.

Government officials have tried to play down the significance of the new alliance, while the government-backed PDI board under chairman Soerjadi, which has been struggling to put together an effective campaign, has dismissed it completely.

Yet those who are concerned about what Megawati's supporters -- it is clear now that their number is quite significant -- have been up to, found this alliance as something of a relief. As Megawati is barred from taking part in the election, there have been concerns about what her supporters might do during the election, or in the current campaign period. Their alliance with PPP indicates that whatever cause they are fighting for, they are doing it within the system. The alternative is unimaginable.

This alliance is something that many people had previously thought impossible, given the divergence in political outlooks and historical backgrounds of the two minority parties. The PPP and PDI are simply two unlikely partners. In political outlook, PDI is closer to Golkar than to PPP. If Megawati's supporters are now opting for PPP, this is a phenomenon that should be studied. The formation of the new alliance is sending many signals.

For one, it is now clear is that Megawati remains an important factor on the political scene, even as she is being barred from the election. She still commands a strong influence within PDI, and judging by the alliance with PPP, her reach is expanding beyond her traditional supporters. Rather than being banished, as her ouster from the PDI chairmanship last June was intended, Megawati's stature has been growing so much so that she is an even bigger political figure now than she was 11 months ago.

But the strongest message that the new alliance is sending is that the demand for political reforms in this country is growing. Political reform is the cause that, in the eyes of her supporters, Megawati has represented, and this is now the cause that the PPP has picked up. At least, that is what its election campaign messages say. It is not surprising therefore that many of Megawati's supporters in PDI feel that they could identify with PPP, in spite of differences in political outlooks.

The new alliance will not likely dent Golkar's election chances, but the message it has sent -- that there is a growing undercurrent of demand for political reforms -- cannot simply be dismissed. It would be wrong to interpret from the election returns -- whether Golkar wins by 70.02 percent as targeted, or by any other margin -- that the majority of Indonesians do not want political reforms. The force for change will remain, and judging by the trend of the past year, it is likely to grow. Trying to crush it will be a futile exercise. The best course for Golkar and the government is to make some accommodations.