All the way with SBY: Landslide predicted

The Jakarta Post, Jakarta

Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono looks set to win the first ever direct presidential election in a landslide, with analysts saying the result underlined the people's loss of confidence in the political elite grouped under the Nationhood Coalition.

The likelihood of Susilo's rival Megawati Sukarnoputri turning the table is becoming increasingly remote. The General Elections Commission (KPU) electronic vote tally as of 9 p.m. Tuesday showed Susilo was maintaining his share of 60.7 percent of the vote, ahead of Megawati by more than 20 percent, with 87 million votes, or more up to three-quarters of the likely final total, counted.

Megawati was trailing in almost all the country's 32 provinces, including in the traditional strongholds of her Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P).

In Central Java, Susilo led the race with 51.6 percent of the vote, against Megawati's 48.3 percent, while in North Sumatra, Megawati was trailing Susilo by 12.7 percent.

Megawati led only in two provinces: Bali and East Nusa Tenggara.

Political analyst J. Kristiadi of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) said Megawati's defeat could have been predicted even before she declared her reelection bid.

"It's been a foregone conclusion, Megawati has achieved virtually nothing during her three years in office. To worsen her stature, a number of policies produced by her party have drawn ire from PDI-P members," he told The Jakarta Post.

Meanwhile, the likely next president, Susilo, kept out of public view on Tuesday. After presiding over a meeting with running mate Jusuf Kalla and campaign team members, including party leaders who supported his presidential bid, Susilo spent most of the day at his residence in the suburb of Cikeas near Bogor, West Java.

After the meeting Kalla called on officials and security forces to guard the ballot boxes heading to regional election commissions for the manual count.

The KPU will announce the official result after the manual count is finished on Oct. 5.

Susilo's landslide victory was predicted by the Institute of Research, Education and Information of Social and Economic Affairs (LP3ES) late on Monday after they completed their "quick count" survey. It said Susilo would finish with a staggering 60.2 percent of the vote, ahead of Megawati whose vote would not exceed 39.8 percent.

"This is the final result of our quick count, as we have completed collecting data from 1,942 polling stations," LP3ES researcher Muhammad Husain said. The poll has a small margin of error and has been accurate in previous elections this year.

The institute expected to collect data from 2,000 selected polling stations, but stopped the vote aggregation after surveying only 1,942 after learning that no significant changes in the figure would be produced.

An exit poll from LP3ES released shortly after the quick count went further in shedding a light as to where votes for Susilo came from and why Megawati has faltered in the runoff.

The exit poll revealed the Nationhood Coalition, consisting of the PDI-P, the Golkar Party and several minor parties had failed to boost Megawati's performance, with Golkar supporters deserting the party in droves to vote for Susilo.

"Only 24 percent of voters who voted for Golkar in the April legislative elections cast their votes for Megawati. The figure for the Reform Star Party (PBR) is 31 percent. The rest went to Susilo," a report on the survey says.

LP3ES researcher Andy Agung Priatna said the exit poll result indicated that apart from being rational, voters were independent and unaffected by moves made by the political elite.

Susilo also won support from members of the two largest Muslim organizations, Nahdlatul Ulama and Muhammadiyah. Sixty percent of NU members and 68 percent of Muhammadiyah supporters voted for Susilo, according to the poll.

Meanwhile, Megawati's imminent defeat in the poll has already sparked violence among her supporters.

In Denpasar, police arrested two people who were accused of disrupting public order following the relatively peaceful election on Monday.

The two men, Megawati supporters Gung Amir and a Jakartan, Ivanxsius, were taken into police custody for burning tires in Kuta to protest at Megawati's likely rout on Monday.

Police said the fiery protest had caused concern among Kuta residents.

In Yogyakarta, the local elections commission (KPUD) held another ballot on Tuesday at a polling station in the Mergangsan subdistrict.

The rerun was organized following complaints by election observers from the Susilo-Kalla campaign team, who protested the early end to the balloting on Monday. Tallies from the repeat poll showed Susilo had secured 106 votes against Megawati's 68.