All eyes on number two
All eyes on number two
It is almost a repeat of what happened five years ago. Now, a year before the March 1998 presidential election, the raging public debate is not on who will be the presidential nominates, but on who will be the candidates for the vice presidency.
It is apparent that most people are resigned to the fact that almost certainly President Soeharto will be reelected for a sixth term of office next year.
However, the President has not yet declared his willingness to be renominated and it seems that nobody is brave enough to think of other names. In previous presidential elections, Soeharto only ever announced his stance after the People's Consultative Assembly (MPR) was in session. Since the presidential election would be an almost certain one-horse-race, the candidacy for the vice president is a more interesting topic, albeit more safe, to discuss.
There are several names in the air, including B.J. Habibie, Ginandjar Kartasasmita, General R. Hartono, Harmoko and Try Sutrisno. Each have their own band of supporters who, for the past few months, have openly or covertly campaigned for their candidate. Recalling past experiences, in which President Soeharto outsmarted everybody by nominating someone unexpected, like the case of Umar Wirahadikusumah, some people have dug deeper by naming several possible dark horses for the number two position. Of course, this is all pure speculation.
The latest to join the debate is Armed Forces Sociopolitical Affairs Chief Lt. Gen. Syarwan Hamid who recently said that the Armed Forces (ABRI) has not made any decision on presidential and vice presidential candidates, and would do so only after the MPR was in session. He also reportedly said that ABRI's stance on the presidential and vice presidential candidates would only be announced by Armed Forces Chief Gen. Feisal Tanjung or himself.
It is obvious that Syarwan Hamid wants to end the speculation on who will be ABRI's candidates for the top two positions, and also wants to prevent other ABRI officials from raising the issue which could stir confusion. But it is likely that Syarwan Hamid has something else in mind. He does not want a repetition of the 1993 incident in which the chairman of the ABRI faction in the MPR differed with Golkar (reportedly also without prior consultation with President Soeharto) and nominated Try Sutrisno as ABRI's candidate for vice presidency.
The chairman of the United Development Party (PPP) Ismail Hasan Metareum has also entered the debate. He recently said that he would consider standing for the vice president position, "if the PPP central board made such a decision".
Knowing Ismail Hasan's character, one would tend to dismiss his candidacy as mere politicking on the eve of the upcoming May 29 election. One would think that Ismail, who is more gentle than his daring predecessor J. Naro who was "forced" to withdraw his vice presidential candidacy in 1983, would never be bold enough to take a stand against President Soeharto's will.
One of the conditions of the vice presidential candidate is that "he or she possess the capability to cooperate with the President". Therefore, it is greatly dependent on the President to nominate someone he believes can cooperate with him. And since President Soeharto himself has yet to declare his willingness to be renominated, and since he is known as a man who keeps his mouth shut, it would be futile to guess the man or woman he wants to be his future second in command.
Still, the fact should not discourage debate on the vice presidential candidates and the authorities should not stop it. People are free to discuss, for example, the criteria for a 21st century vice president. At least, this would give people a chance to participate in healthy political debate. It might also shift public attention from a more "dangerous" issue, such as election boycott.