All eyes on number two

All eyes on number two

It is almost a repeat of what happened five years ago. Now, a
year before the March 1998 presidential election, the raging
public debate is not on who will be the presidential nominates,
but on who will be the candidates for the vice presidency.

It is apparent that most people are resigned to the fact that
almost certainly President Soeharto will be reelected for a sixth
term of office next year.

However, the President has not yet declared his willingness to
be renominated and it seems that nobody is brave enough to think
of other names. In previous presidential elections, Soeharto only
ever announced his stance after the People's Consultative
Assembly (MPR) was in session. Since the presidential election
would be an almost certain one-horse-race, the candidacy for the
vice president is a more interesting topic, albeit more safe, to
discuss.

There are several names in the air, including B.J. Habibie,
Ginandjar Kartasasmita, General R. Hartono, Harmoko and Try
Sutrisno. Each have their own band of supporters who, for the
past few months, have openly or covertly campaigned for their
candidate. Recalling past experiences, in which President
Soeharto outsmarted everybody by nominating someone unexpected,
like the case of Umar Wirahadikusumah, some people have dug
deeper by naming several possible dark horses for the number two
position. Of course, this is all pure speculation.

The latest to join the debate is Armed Forces Sociopolitical
Affairs Chief Lt. Gen. Syarwan Hamid who recently said that the
Armed Forces (ABRI) has not made any decision on presidential and
vice presidential candidates, and would do so only after the MPR
was in session. He also reportedly said that ABRI's stance on the
presidential and vice presidential candidates would only be
announced by Armed Forces Chief Gen. Feisal Tanjung or himself.

It is obvious that Syarwan Hamid wants to end the speculation
on who will be ABRI's candidates for the top two positions, and
also wants to prevent other ABRI officials from raising the issue
which could stir confusion. But it is likely that Syarwan Hamid
has something else in mind. He does not want a repetition of the
1993 incident in which the chairman of the ABRI faction in the
MPR differed with Golkar (reportedly also without prior
consultation with President Soeharto) and nominated Try Sutrisno
as ABRI's candidate for vice presidency.

The chairman of the United Development Party (PPP) Ismail
Hasan Metareum has also entered the debate. He recently said that
he would consider standing for the vice president position, "if
the PPP central board made such a decision".

Knowing Ismail Hasan's character, one would tend to dismiss
his candidacy as mere politicking on the eve of the upcoming May
29 election. One would think that Ismail, who is more gentle than
his daring predecessor J. Naro who was "forced" to withdraw his
vice presidential candidacy in 1983, would never be bold enough
to take a stand against President Soeharto's will.

One of the conditions of the vice presidential candidate is
that "he or she possess the capability to cooperate with the
President". Therefore, it is greatly dependent on the President
to nominate someone he believes can cooperate with him. And since
President Soeharto himself has yet to declare his willingness to
be renominated, and since he is known as a man who keeps his
mouth shut, it would be futile to guess the man or woman he wants
to be his future second in command.

Still, the fact should not discourage debate on the vice
presidential candidates and the authorities should not stop it.
People are free to discuss, for example, the criteria for a 21st
century vice president. At least, this would give people a chance
to participate in healthy political debate. It might also shift
public attention from a more "dangerous" issue, such as election
boycott.