Alert: Very Heavy Rain to Batter Indonesia as Mudik Period Approaches, BMKG Issues Warning

Jakarta — As the Lebaran exodus period (Mudik Lebaran 2026) approaches, Indonesia’s Meteorological, Climatological and Geophysical Agency (BMKG) has warned of potential heavy to very heavy rainfall across several Indonesian regions. These conditions are influenced by global, regional, and local atmospheric dynamics.

First, the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is forecast to shift to phases 6 and 7 (Western Pacific) over the coming week, with cloud formation and rainfall concentration expected to be more dominant across eastern Indonesia.

Additionally, Kelvin and Equatorial Rossby waves are predicted to be active over Sumatra and northern Kalimantan, parts of Sulawesi, North Maluku, Maluku, Southwest Papua, West Papua, and Papua, which could support increased convective activity and rainfall potential in these regions.

A Tropical Cyclone Formation 95W is forecast to remain persistent in the North Pacific Ocean north of Papua. The system has maximum wind speeds of 20 knots, a minimum air pressure of 1006 hPa, and is moving northeast away from Indonesian territory.

This cyclone formation will induce convergence and confluence zones in the North Pacific Ocean north of Halmahera to north of West Papua. Additional convergence zones are also forecast to form across most of Indonesia.

These conditions are capable of increasing the potential for rainfall cloud development around the cyclone formation and along the convergence and confluence zones, according to BMKG’s official statement on Tuesday, 10 March 2026.

Weather Forecast for the Coming Week:

10–12 March 2026

Alert for medium to heavy rain: Aceh, North Sumatra, West Sumatra, Jambi, South Sumatra, Bangka Belitung Islands, Bengkulu, Lampung, Banten, Jakarta, West Java, Central Java, West Kalimantan, Central Kalimantan, East Kalimantan, South Kalimantan, North Sulawesi, Gorontalo, Central Sulawesi, Southeast Sulawesi, North Maluku, Maluku, Southwest Papua, West Papua, Central Papua, Highland Papua, Papua, and South Papua.

Alert for heavy to very heavy rain: Yogyakarta Special Region, East Java, Bali, West Nusa Tenggara, East Nusa Tenggara, North Kalimantan, West Sulawesi, South Sulawesi.

Strong winds: Banten, East Java, Maluku, South Sulawesi.

13–16 March 2026

Alert for medium to heavy rain: North Sumatra, West Sumatra, Riau, Riau Islands, Jambi, South Sumatra, Bangka Belitung Islands, Bengkulu, Lampung, West Java, Central Java, East Java, West Nusa Tenggara, East Nusa Tenggara, Central Kalimantan, East Kalimantan, North Kalimantan, South Kalimantan, North Sulawesi, Gorontalo, Central Sulawesi, West Sulawesi, South Sulawesi, Southeast Sulawesi, North Maluku, Maluku, Southwest Papua, West Papua, Central Papua, Papua, and South Papua.

Alert for heavy to very heavy rain: Central Papua.

Strong winds: North Sulawesi.