Alert Level 1! US-Iran Deal Collapses Amid 'Terror' of Economic Data Onslaught
Chandra Asri Pacific (TPIA) shares also served as a major pillar of the JCI, contributing 18.17 index points. Shares from the Barito Group, owned by Prajogo Pangestu, uniformly strengthened during yesterday’s trading.
Moving to the domestic bond market, the yield on Indonesia’s 10-year government securities (SBN) closed at 6.548% yesterday Friday (10/4/2026), moving in the range of 6.547-6.576% from the previous close of 6.576%.
The yield eased, signalling rising SBN prices as investors bought in.
The S&P 500 experienced a slight decline on Friday but managed a solid weekly gain as market participants continued to monitor the fragile two-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran.
The S&P fell 0.11% and closed at 6,816.89, while the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.35% to close at 22,902.89.
This uptick was driven by strength in major semiconductor stocks such as Nvidia and Broadcom. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 269.23 points, or 0.56%, ending at 47,916.57.
Nevertheless, the S&P 500 added about 3.6% last week, Nasdaq rose around 4.7% over the same period, and the Dow recorded a 3% increase. These indices posted their best weekly performance since November.
On Friday, President Donald Trump accused Iran of ‘short-term blackmail against the World using International Waterways.’ In a post on Truth Social, he stated that the country’s leaders ‘seem unaware that they have no leverage’ and that ‘the only reason they are still holding on now is to negotiate.’
This came a day after the president warned that Iran must not charge fees from oil tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz. In a Truth Social post, he wrote: ‘They had better not do it, and if they do, they must stop immediately.’
Oil prices fluctuated amid concerns surrounding the reopening of the strait that loomed over the market. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures ultimately fell 1.33% to $96.57 per barrel, while the international Brent crude benchmark dropped 0.75% to $95.20.
Inflation was a major concern for investors last week as they evaluated several key reports, amid fears that energy price surges triggered by the Middle East conflict could spill over into the US economy.
The March consumer price index (CPI) report showed inflation in line with expectations, at 0.9% for the month and 3.3% annually. This figure included a 10.9% surge in energy costs due to the conflict.
However, excluding energy prices, the report revealed that inflation was fairly contained last month. Core CPI rose only 0.2% for the month and 2.6% compared to the previous year, below expectations. Inflation had previously been held at 3% ahead of the Iran war, which has lasted nearly six weeks.
Despite this, the war continues to fuel inflation worries. According to a University of Michigan survey released on Friday, consumers expect inflation to surge to 4.8% next year. This figure rose a full percentage point from March data.
‘The Fed will do everything it can to disregard any data they receive for March and April,’ said Tim Holland, head of investments at Orion. This assumes ‘there is a way out of the conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran,’ he added.
While Holland believes the Iran war will de-escalate from this point and oil prices will stabilise, he warned that investors should be more vigilant about its inflationary impact if WTI crude remains trading around $100 per barrel in early to mid-June.
‘There is a dangerous combination of already depressed consumer sentiment and rising inflation expectations,’ he said. ‘That will be a tough spot for the economy and put the Fed in a tricky situation.’
Market participants will once again focus on several key agendas next week, starting today Monday (13/4/2026), both domestically and globally. Investor attention will centre on a series of Chinese data, US consumption indicators, and a slew of Bank Indonesia releases providing the latest snapshot of the domestic economy.
These data releases are crucial as they could influence the direction of the rupiah, JCI, bonds, and commodity prices. Moreover, global markets are still seeking certainty on the strength of world economic growth amid prolonged high interest rates and unresolved trade tensions.
The failure of the US-Iran agreement is one of the biggest sentiments today and for the week ahead.
War Developments
On Sunday, President Donald Trump stated that the US would blockade the Strait of Hormuz after talks held in Pakistan to end the Iran war reached a deadlock.
‘Effective immediately, the United States Navy, the best in the world, will begin the process of BLOCKADING any ship attempting to enter or exit the Strait of Hormuz,’ Trump said in a post on his social media platform, Truth Social. ‘The blockade will begin soon. Other countries will join in this blockade. Iran will not be allowed to profit from this illegal blackmail.’
The U.S. Central Command stated in a post on X on Sunday evening that the US military would begin implementing the blockade on Monday at 10 a.m. Eastern Time. CENTCOM said additional information would be provided to commercial ships before the blockade starts.
They added that the US