Akbar Tandjung 'too too strong to unseat'

M. Taufiqurrahman, The Jakarta Post, Jakarta

Akbar Tandjung is the man to beat in the race for the Golkar Party leadership, and challenging the incumbent will be difficult if not impossible, analysts say.

Analyst Fachry Ali, of the Institute for Business Ethics, said despite the nomination of big political names such as Vice President Jusuf Kalla and House of Representatives (DPR) Speaker Agung Laksono for the party's top post, Akbar was likely to win the election given his control over a substantial number of Golkar's 33 provincial chapters.

"Among Akbar's contenders, Kalla is the strongest and yet he will only likely win support from a number of provincial chapters from Sulawesi, while Akbar has already secured backing from provincial chapters in Sumatra and some in Java," Fachry told The Jakarta Post on Tuesday.

Five Golkar members have declared their bid to become Golkar's party leader. They are Akbar, Kalla, Marwah Daud Ibrahim, Slamet Effendy Yusuf and Gen. (ret) Wiranto.

Media mogul Surya Paloh pulled out from the race to pave the way for Kalla's nomination. Paloh then put his name forward for a position in the party's advisory body.

Fachry said Akbar also had the advantage of having been able to maintain the party's prevailing standing orders, which granted voting rights to provincial chapters. The orders say only Golkar politicians with at least five years experience as members of the party's executive board can run for the top post.

Wiranto, the only candidate who has not been a member of the board, is still running and trying to have these orders amended.

Realizing that beating the two strong candidates would be an uphill challenge, the remaining candidates would be left with a little choice but to align with Akbar or Kalla, Fachry said.

Fachry said that should the rivalry for the Golkar leadership turn into a two-horse race between Kalla and Akbar, the likelihood of vote buying would be reduced as both were known for promoting the principles of democracy.

Golkar is holding its national congress to elect a new leader from Dec. 15 through Dec. 20 in Nusa Dua, Bali.

Sukardi Rinakit, of the Soegeng Sarjadi Syndicated (SSS) political polling organization, meanwhile, said Kalla's nomination for Golkar's top post would likely go against public expectations that government officials should not assume posts in political parties.

"He would also risk being considered someone who hindered the consolidation of democracy as his motive for running for election as Golkar leader would be to keep the administration of President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono in power," he told the Post.

Such expectations could prove a stumbling block for Kalla's nomination because most of the big political parties in the country were no longer led by figures who held positions in public office, he said.

Sukardi said the same belief would likely impede the candidacy of Agung, who had been elected the House of Representatives Speaker.

Sukardi said Kalla's nomination had limited the chances of Wiranto, the strongest candidate before the vice president joined the race.

"Taking all this into consideration, Akbar will be the strongest candidate in the race," he said.

Akbar also had a strong grip on the party's central executive board and on party members in the House, he said.

"These people will do their utmost to secure Akbar's reelection. Those (members) who sit in the House, who are mostly supporters of Akbar, face the possibility of dismissal if Kalla is elected the new chairman," he said.