Airlangga Reveals Indonesia's Recession Probability Below 5%, Lower Than the US
Coordinating Minister for the Economy Airlangga Hartarto has emphasised that Indonesia’s economy continues to demonstrate resilience and is well-positioned to sustain stronger economic growth, bolstered by solid domestic fundamentals.
“The probability of Indonesia experiencing a recession remains very low, at under 5%, which is lower than in the United States, Japan, and Canada. This reflects the resilience of Indonesia’s economy and its strong growth capacity amid rising global uncertainties,” Airlangga stated at the International Seminar on Debottlenecking Channel in Jakarta on Tuesday (12/5/2026).
Airlangga explained that Indonesia’s economic resilience is evident in the first quarter of 2026, where the economy grew by 5.61%, with inflation maintained at 2.42% and consumer confidence remaining strong. Additionally, Indonesia’s trade balance has recorded surpluses for 71 consecutive months, supported by financial sector stability and solid foreign exchange reserves.
Furthermore, to strengthen the acceleration of economic growth, President Prabowo Subianto has issued Presidential Regulation No. 4 of 2026 on the Task Force for Accelerating Government Programmes to Support Economic Growth (Satgas P3-MPPE).
The task force was established to enhance cross-ministry/institutional synergy, simplify processes, and expedite the resolution of various obstacles in implementing national strategic programmes.
Airlangga noted that the debottlenecking channel has three main functions: capturing and managing obstacles in real time, providing a credible channel for investors to directly convey various constraints, and translating those inputs into policy recommendations that can be promptly acted upon.
Through strengthening this debottlenecking mechanism, the government not only aims to simplify processes and improve the business climate but also to build investor confidence that Indonesia is a safe, predictable investment destination with minimal barriers.
The government is optimistic that amid global uncertainties, Indonesia has significant potential to become one of the world’s growth centres. However, this requires swift action, solid coordination, and consistent policy implementation to optimally harness economic potentials for shared welfare.
“Let us transform these obstacles into wide-open channels for collective prosperity. I hope this seminar will yield productive discussions and provide constructive inputs,” Airlangga said.