Ahead of BPS Economic Data Release, Economists Predict March 2026 Inflation Remains Under Control

JAKARTA, KOMPAS.com - The Central Statistics Agency (BPS) will announce national economic data for March 2026 today, Wednesday (1/4/2026) at 11.00 WIB. Economist from Paramadina University Wijayanto Samirin predicts that Indonesia’s inflation for March 2026 will remain within a controlled range, despite being influenced by several driving and restraining factors. He projects monthly inflation to be in the range of 0.40–0.60%, while year-on-year (yoy) inflation is estimated to reach 3.50–3.80%. “March 2026 yoy inflation is influenced by four main factors,” said Wija to Kompas.com on Wednesday (1/4/2026). The first is the base effect from the previous year, which tends to suppress inflation. Second, the seasonal effect of Lebaran 2026, which falls in March and drives increased demand. Third, the acceleration of the free nutritious meals (MBG) programme, which has the potential to increase food prices. The fourth factor is the public’s purchasing power, which has not fully recovered, reflected in the tendency for people to restrain consumption and increase savings. According to Wija, the first and fourth factors tend to suppress inflation, while the second and third factors drive price increases. At the same time, imports are also increasing, particularly from China and Vietnam, which are facing barriers to entry into the US market. Nevertheless, Indonesia is expected to maintain a trade balance surplus in the range of $4–5 billion, relatively stable compared to previous years. He assesses that this inflation and trade balance data provides a neutral to positive signal for the national economy. “Because these two main macro indicators remain within a relatively solid corridor amid global uncertainties,” he explained.