Agency forecasts heavy rains, warns of floods

JAKARTA (JP): Heavy rains are expected to fall on the country from this month until early next year, the Meteorology and Geophysics Agency (BMG) said here on Friday.

It warned of possible floods and an adverse effect on harvests as a result of above average precipitation which is expected to last for between three and eight months depending on the region.

The reason for the expected high rainfall, according to the agency's head Sri Diharto, could be the La Nina weather phenomenon, although he added it was still too early to be certain.

"We will issue warnings once we have established if La Nia really has arrived," Diharto said in a news conference. He was referring to the weather phenomenon which experts say is the reverse of El Nino, the weather phenomenon that brought widespread drought to the country last year.

La Nina is caused by unusually cold ocean temperatures in the Pacific Ocean which often follow the unusually warm temperatures which characterize El Nino.

Diharto said he hoped the relevant government agencies would begin to draft contingency plans for severe weather immediately. He said that public works offices should identify areas prone to flooding and help residents to prepare themselves and protect their crops and homes. He also said that agricultural offices should disseminate recommendations on crop planting patterns.

The agency forecast that 15 out of 63 regions in Java would get heavy rain this month. The regions include Pandeglang, Sukabumi, Cianjur and the western part of Bandung in West Java; and Pekalongan, Banyumas, Magelang and Wonosobo in Central Java.

He said rain would begin to fall in a further 28 regions of Java in early October. These regions include southern parts of Jakarta; Tangerang, Bekasi, Karawang and Bandung in West Java; Yogyakarta; Surakarta in Central Java; and Blitar, Malang, Jember, Ponorogo, Lumajang and Mojokerto in East Java.

Northern parts of Serang, Jakarta, Tangerang, Bekasi, Karawang, Indramayu, Cirebon, all in West Java, are expected to get their first rains in November.

The agency predicted that the north coast around Sampang, Pamekasan, and Sumenep on the island of Madura in East Java would get rain in December.

From the 63 regions, 43 are expected to see rainfall above normal levels, including Jakarta, large areas of West Java, the northern part of Brebes, Pekalongan, Cilacap, Banyumas, the southern parts of Kebumen and Purworejo, and most parts of Yogyakarta, Surakarta and most of East Java.

"The likelihood of floods does not depend only on the intensity of rain, but also on the condition of water catchment areas and drainage systems in the regions," Diharto said.

Diharto also warned of flash floods, recalling that Jakarta was hit by floods attributed to La Nina in the first two months of 1996 that claimed the lives of 32 people. Jatinegara in East Jakarta was among the worst hit areas in the capital and Diharto explained that this was due to its proximity to the Ciliwung river.

Diharto said that in February 1996, rainfall in the capital had been boosted to "around 20 percent above normal" as a result of the La Nia effect. In that month, the main thoroughfare of Jl. M.H. Thamrin was inundated.

"It's unlikely that this year's La Nina will be as strong, but Allahu Akbar (Allah is Great), who knows," he said.

Outside Java, the agency forecast that rains in the southern part of Merauke would begin in December and said rains would begin in eight other regions this month. Rains are expected to begin in a further 16 regions in October and 14 in more in November.

Regions in Sumatra which are expected to get above average rainfall this year are South Lampung, the western part of North Lampung, Kampar and Indragiri Hulu in Riau. On the island of Borneo, South Kalimantan and the eastern part of Central Kalimantan are expected to get above average rainfall.

Elsewhere, Buleleng and Karangasem in Bali, the western part of West Lombok, Sumbawa, the west coast of Flores, and Mamuju and Majene in South Sulawesi are all expected to experience heavier than normal rain. (aan)