Agency forecasts heavy rains, warns of floods

Agency forecasts heavy rains, warns of floods

JAKARTA (JP): Heavy rains are expected to fall on the country
from this month until early next year, the Meteorology and
Geophysics Agency (BMG) said here on Friday.

It warned of possible floods and an adverse effect on harvests
as a result of above average precipitation which is expected to
last for between three and eight months depending on the region.

The reason for the expected high rainfall, according to the
agency's head Sri Diharto, could be the La Nina weather
phenomenon, although he added it was still too early to be
certain.

"We will issue warnings once we have established if La Nia
really has arrived," Diharto said in a news conference. He was
referring to the weather phenomenon which experts say is the
reverse of El Nino, the weather phenomenon that brought
widespread drought to the country last year.

La Nina is caused by unusually cold ocean temperatures in the
Pacific Ocean which often follow the unusually warm temperatures
which characterize El Nino.

Diharto said he hoped the relevant government agencies would
begin to draft contingency plans for severe weather immediately.
He said that public works offices should identify areas prone to
flooding and help residents to prepare themselves and protect
their crops and homes. He also said that agricultural offices
should disseminate recommendations on crop planting patterns.

The agency forecast that 15 out of 63 regions in Java would
get heavy rain this month. The regions include Pandeglang,
Sukabumi, Cianjur and the western part of Bandung in West Java;
and Pekalongan, Banyumas, Magelang and Wonosobo in Central Java.

He said rain would begin to fall in a further 28 regions of
Java in early October. These regions include southern parts of
Jakarta; Tangerang, Bekasi, Karawang and Bandung in West Java;
Yogyakarta; Surakarta in Central Java; and Blitar, Malang,
Jember, Ponorogo, Lumajang and Mojokerto in East Java.

Northern parts of Serang, Jakarta, Tangerang, Bekasi,
Karawang, Indramayu, Cirebon, all in West Java, are expected to
get their first rains in November.

The agency predicted that the north coast around Sampang,
Pamekasan, and Sumenep on the island of Madura in East Java would
get rain in December.

From the 63 regions, 43 are expected to see rainfall above
normal levels, including Jakarta, large areas of West Java, the
northern part of Brebes, Pekalongan, Cilacap, Banyumas, the
southern parts of Kebumen and Purworejo, and most parts of
Yogyakarta, Surakarta and most of East Java.

"The likelihood of floods does not depend only on the
intensity of rain, but also on the condition of water catchment
areas and drainage systems in the regions," Diharto said.

Diharto also warned of flash floods, recalling that Jakarta
was hit by floods attributed to La Nina in the first two months
of 1996 that claimed the lives of 32 people. Jatinegara in East
Jakarta was among the worst hit areas in the capital and Diharto
explained that this was due to its proximity to the Ciliwung
river.

Diharto said that in February 1996, rainfall in the capital
had been boosted to "around 20 percent above normal" as a result
of the La Nia effect. In that month, the main thoroughfare of
Jl. M.H. Thamrin was inundated.

"It's unlikely that this year's La Nina will be as strong, but
Allahu Akbar (Allah is Great), who knows," he said.

Outside Java, the agency forecast that rains in the southern
part of Merauke would begin in December and said rains would
begin in eight other regions this month. Rains are expected to
begin in a further 16 regions in October and 14 in more in
November.

Regions in Sumatra which are expected to get above average
rainfall this year are South Lampung, the western part of North
Lampung, Kampar and Indragiri Hulu in Riau. On the island of
Borneo, South Kalimantan and the eastern part of Central
Kalimantan are expected to get above average rainfall.

Elsewhere, Buleleng and Karangasem in Bali, the western part
of West Lombok, Sumbawa, the west coast of Flores, and Mamuju and
Majene in South Sulawesi are all expected to experience heavier
than normal rain. (aan)