Aftershocks Continue in NTT, When Will Activity Subside?
BMKG has reported that 3,002 aftershocks have occurred in East Nusa Tenggara (NTT). The agency predicts that aftershocks will continue until the end of September 2026.
“The rate of aftershocks can reach a relatively low level within three weeks to one month, possibly by the end of September 2026,” said BMKG Deputy for Geophysics Nelly Florida Riama during a press conference on Wednesday (19/8/2026).
Nevertheless, Nelly stressed that this prediction does not mean aftershocks will cease entirely after September. She explained that BMKG will continue to update data on the development of seismic activity.
“In general, the graph shows a declining trend. Although there may be periods of increased activity, overall these aftershocks will decrease,” Nelly explained.
“Our preliminary calculations suggest that within approximately 21 to 30 days the aftershocks will soon decline,” she continued.
Meanwhile, BMKG Head Teuku Faisal Fathani addressed public concerns about the potential for a larger earthquake in NTT. Teuku assured that it would take a long time for an earthquake of magnitude 7.7 to strike the region again.
“It must be emphasised that it will take decades for the back-arc thrust fault in Flores to accumulate energy and produce an earthquake as large as the one that occurred recently,” Teuku told reporters at the parliamentary complex in Senayan, Jakarta, on Wednesday (19/8/2026).
Teuku explained that over the coming decades, the potential for earthquakes of greater or lesser magnitude does remain in NTT. However, he stressed that this will not happen in the near future.
In addition, Teuku provided updated aftershock data as of 5.00 pm WIB on 19 August 2026. His agency recorded 3,055 aftershocks, with the largest measuring M 6.2.
“The number of aftershocks as of 5.00 pm WIB this afternoon, 19 August 2026, was recorded at 3,055. The largest aftershock was magnitude 6.2 and the smallest M 1.1,” Teuku explained.
“A total of 88 aftershocks were felt by the public. Regarding the decay process, because the main earthquake was quite large, at M 7.7, the decline in seismic activity will take approximately three to four weeks,” he continued.
The death toll from the earthquake in NTT continues to rise. As of 6.00 pm WITA on 19 August 2026, the number of fatalities stood at 73 people. Meanwhile, the total number of serious and minor injuries was 931 people.
“The provisional tally is 73 deaths,” said head of the Maumere SAR office, Fathur Rahman, on Wednesday evening (19/8/2026).
The earthquake victims are spread across seven districts on Flores. The highest number of fatalities was in Manggarai Regency with 27 people. There were 32 serious injuries and 104 minor injuries, with most victims in the Reo area.
The next highest number of fatalities was in East Manggarai with 24 people. There were 198 serious injuries and 421 minor injuries.
In Nagekeo Regency, 11 people died, with 13 serious injuries and 9 minor injuries. In Sikka Regency, 5 people died, with 18 serious injuries and 22 minor injuries. In Ende Regency, 2 people died, with 5 serious injuries and 67 minor injuries.
In Ngada Regency, 2 people died, with 17 serious injuries and 19 minor injuries. In West Manggarai Regency, 2 people died, with 2 serious injuries and 4 minor injuries.