After Long Holiday, BI Predicts Retail Sales to Slow

Bank Indonesia (BI) estimates that retail sales performance will contract by 0.3% month-to-month (mtm) in July 2026, an improvement compared to the 4.1% mtm contraction recorded in July 2025. The central bank’s survey indicates that the food, beverages, and tobacco group, along with information and communication equipment, are expected to be the main contributors to the July 2026 decline, dragging down the overall index. Meanwhile, the June 2026 Retail Sales Survey showed a monthly growth of 0.7% mtm, rebounding from a 1.5% mtm contraction in the previous month. This growth was supported by sustained public demand during the National Religious Holiday (HBKN) period and school holidays. On an annual basis, the June 2026 Real Sales Index stood at 225.0, a contraction of 3.0% year-on-year, which was an improvement from the previous month’s performance. Key groups supporting the June performance included spare parts and accessories, which grew 18.7% yoy, and other household equipment, which grew 2.8% yoy.