ADB president predicts moderate 2002 rebound for East Asia

ADB president predicts moderate 2002 rebound for East Asia

Sarah Stewart, Agence France-Presse, Yangon

East Asia is heading for a moderate rebound in 2002 as the
global economy improves faster than anticipated after the
September 11 attacks, Asian Development Bank (ADB) president
Tadao Chino said Saturday.

Chino told an Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)
finance ministers meeting that the impact of the terrorist
strikes and the resulting Afghan conflict had been less harmful
than expected.

"There is a growing consensus that the region will experience
a moderate rebound this year, in contrast to the gloomy picture
one foresaw in the immediate aftermath of the 11 September
attacks," he said.

"Going forward, this year's moderate rebound in the region's
growth is expected to strengthen in 2003."

Pointing to rising stock markets and signs that exports and
domestic demand are picking up, the ADB president said the upturn
may already be under way.

Chino said that last year's synchronized slowdown among
industrialized nations and the collapse of the technology sector
had caused a significant drop in demand for the region's exports.

Governments and central banks responded to the external shock,
their second in half a decade, with sound fiscal and monetary
policies that represented a "coordinated regional policy
response".

But the terrorist attacks on the United States then introduced
another hurdle that prompted the ADB to predict at the time that
a regional rebound would only occur in mid-2002.

Since then, however, global and regional developments have
given cause for optimism about the region's immediate prospects,
Chino said.

"First, the impact of the Sept. 11 attacks have turned out to
be less disruptive than expected."

"Second, data and information released in the last few months,
especially in the past few weeks, show distinct signs of
improvement in the global economic situation."

Chino said the U.S. economy seems to have bottomed out and is
recovering faster than anticipated. Europe is set for a milder
rebound and there are recent positive signs in Japan even though
recession persists there.

"These developments augur well for East Asia. East Asia seems
to be moving from last year's sharp synchronized slowdown to a
faster-than-expected -- but a moderate -- rebound," he said.

At the conclusion of their two-day meeting here, ASEAN finance
ministers said they expected the region to grow at 3.5-4.0
percent this year, bolstered by global recovery and efforts to
integrate member nations' economies.

"This is based on the projected recovery of the global
economy, our sound domestic macroeconomic policies and ongoing
structural reforms, and the closer economic cooperation that
ASEAN has fostered," they said in a statement.