Aceh talks to be still-born

Damien Kingsbury Head, Philosophical, Political and International Studies Deakin University Melbourne Australia

Negotiations between the government and the Free Aceh Movement (GAM), which are aimed at ending the northern province's protracted conflict, look set to fail, with both the government and GAM locked into separate final positions before the talks even begin. The talks, to be held in Geneva under the facilitation of the Henry Dunant Centre (including U.S. Gen. (ret) Anthony Zinni) aimed at ending the province's 26-year-old war for independence.

The government has made GAM's acceptance of a special autonomy package for Aceh it announced early this year the starting point for negotiations.

However, some observers in Jakarta say that acceptance of the autonomy package should be the government's preferred outcome, and not its starting point.

However, speaking in Kuala Lumpur ahead of the talks, GAM negotiators say that the autonomy package is deeply flawed and, being less than independence, would need to be voted on by the people of the province. The government has so far refused to accept the idea of a ballot on the autonomy package, fearing its rejection would be a clear sign that most Acehnese do in fact want independence.

Refusal by the government to accept a popular vote on autonomy for Aceh has been paralleld by threats of full-scale military action in the province, although most observers say that the Indonesian Military (TNI) is already engaged in full-scale military action. There are currently some 22,000 TNI soldiers in Aceh, along with more than 12,000 paramilitary Mobile Brigade national police and some 10,000 militia, mostly in central Aceh.

GAM has about 3,500 armed guerrillas in the hills and an active suport base of around 10,000. More than 2,500 people have been killed in Aceh since the beginning 2001 -- GAM claims 6,000 in 2001 alone -- following on from the deaths of more than 10,000 in the period from 1989 to 1998, the military operations period.

Also testing the government's possible acceptance of a popular ballot on autonomy, GAM says that for any such vote to be free, fair and transparent, it would require the involvement of an external organization, such as the UN or a UN-sanctioned body.

The government and in particular the TNI has flatly refused to countenance the presence of a foreign organization to oversee any further ballots, "nationalist" sensitivity to such issues being highlighted by the separation of East Timor after the UN- supervised ballot of 1999.

The most recent phase of the conflict in the resource-rich province began in 1999, after the outcome of the East Timor ballot. GAM successes in the field, including cutting the Trans- Sumatra Highway, despite an already high level of TNI activity, led to an escalation of TNI and Brimob operations from mid-2001.

Since then dozens of villages and small towns have been destroyed, there are now tens of thousands of internal refugees and there have been well documented reports of numerous massacres, one of which occurred next to the giant Exxon- controlled Arun LNG plant at Lhokseumawe, southeast of Banda Aceh.

Conflict between the Acehnese and Jakarta began in 1953, after Jakarta scrapped Aceh's status as a quasi-independent province following the war of independence against the Dutch. Peace was concluded in 1963 on the basis that Aceh received 'special autonomy' status. However, Jakarta continued to intervene in Acehnese affairs, and dominated the economy, especially receipts from the Aurn LNG plant, leading to an outbreak of hostilities from 1976.

Members of the GAM negotiating team say they believe there was a chance of reaching a compromise settlement with Jakarta up until 1999. But since 1999, they say, there have been too many human rights abuses in the province and the government has refused to guarantee that any negotiated settlement would include charges against TNI officers based on crimes against humanity.

GAM negotiators now say that the only possible settlement must involve a ballot on Jakarta's new autonomy package, with the alternative being a vote for independence.

Dr Damien Kingsbury is author of The Politics of Indonesia, and a forthcoming book is Autonomy and Disintegration in Indonesia.