Aceh peace still faces major hurdles, ICG says
The Jakarta Post, Jakarta
The efforts to create lasting peace in tsunami-devastated Aceh have been more successful than expected thus far, but the process has now entered a critical stage, a report says.
In its latest update on the Aceh peace process, the International Crisis Group said that since the peace agreement was signed in Helsinki on Aug. 15, the political will of the government and the Free Aceh Movement (GAM) to keep the process moving forward had led both to take risks.
"Those risks appear to have paid off. The threat of militia violence has not materialized, and amnestied prisoners have returned home without incident," the Brussels-based organization said.
Under the peace deal, GAM dropped its long-held demand for independence, while the government amnestied the former rebels and promised to allow them to form a political party.
GAM has also to surrender its weapons in exchange for a major pullout of military and police personnel from the province.
The government released GAM prisoners two weeks before decommissioning began, and by the end of the third stage of a four-stage process last month, GAM had turned in more weapons than expected, the ICG noted.
"What has been achieved so far is a real credit to the government and GAM," ICG President Gareth Evans said.
The report said the future prospects of the peace process would depend on the success of the reintegration of former GAM members into civilian life and the legal process of incorporating the provisions of the agreement into legislation.
The ICG noted that many combatants who had returned spontaneously to their communities were now mostly unemployed.
Disagreement between GAM leaders and the government over the making of cash payments to facilitate reintegration was also holding up more comprehensive programs to establish new livelihoods, the report said.
"If the problem is not resolved, the danger in the long term is that bored or jobless ex-combatants will turn to crime or seek to resume fighting," ICG said.
The second hurdle is the legal process of incorporating the provisions of the agreement into a new law that must be adopted by lawmakers in the House of Representatives.
"The transformation of GAM from an armed movement to a political one hinges on this law, particularly its provisions on local political parties and the mechanics of local elections," the report said.
"The question is whether the parliament will accept the Acehnese draft without serious revisions."
The House had initially opposed the peace deal. It recently threatened to derail the deliberation of the Aceh governance bill unless the government provided details of the peace agreement and its consequences.
The ICG noted that a fresh potential sticking point had recently emerged: whether there would be a provision in the law allowing for the division of Aceh into smaller provinces.
Demands have been mounting from people claiming to represent 11 of Aceh's 20 regencies in the highlands and part of the west coast for the establishment of two new provinces.
GAM has opposed the move, citing the peace agreement which recognizes Aceh's territory as it is now.
"Such a reference (to allowing division) could undermine the consensus in Aceh around the current draft and ultimately, the peace itself," the group warned, adding however that overall it was upbeat about future prospects.