According to Calculations, Fuel Prices Should Rise from 1 May 2026

Non-subsidised fuel prices are projected to rise from 1 May 2026. This forecast emerges alongside the rebound in global crude oil prices in April 2026, coupled with the rupiah’s weakening against the US dollar. These two indicators are key factors in determining adjustments to non-subsidised fuel prices in Indonesia. According to Refinitiv data, the average Brent crude price stood at US$101.89 per barrel in April 2026, up 2.30% from the previous month’s average of around US$99.6 per barrel. Meanwhile, the average West Texas Intermediate (WTI) price reached US$97.71 per barrel in April, marking an even steeper increase of 7.38% compared to March’s average of US91perbarrel.ThesurgeinglobaloilpricesthroughoutApril2026stemsprimarilyfromuncertaintiessurroundingtheunresolvedUS − Iranconflict.Themarketiswatchingtheimpasseinnegotiations, asUSPresidentDonaldTrumpisreportedlydissatisfiedwithTehran′slatestproposaltoendthewar.Ontheotherhand, Iraniansourcesindicatethattheproposaldoesnotaddressissuessuchasthenuclearprogramme, cessationofhostilities, oreasingshippingdisputesintheGulfregion.ThissituationcontinuestodisruptenergyflowsfromtheGulfarea.IranisreportedlystillrestrictingshippingmovementsintheStraitofHormuz, whiletheUSmaintainsitsblockadeonIranianports.TheStraitofHormuzisacriticalroute, typicallyhandlingenergysuppliesequivalenttoabout20. How Will May 2026 Fuel Prices Fare? As a reminder, the government determines fuel prices using a specific formula. Two variables are employed: the average global oil price and the rupiah exchange rate, given the scale of imports. Based on Ministerial Decree No. 19 K/10/MEM/2019 on the Basic Price Formula for Calculating Retail Selling Prices of Fuel Types, the formula uses the average published Mean of Platts Singapore (MOPS) price in USD per barrel for the period from the 25th of two months prior to the 24th of one month prior, for the current month’s determination. The average Brent crude price over the last two months (April-March) was US$100.69 per barrel, far higher than the previous two months’ average (March 2026-February 2026) of US$85.20 per barrel. Similarly, the average WTI price over the last two months showed an even sharper rise to US$94.19 per barrel, up from US$78.35 per barrel. This increase in oil prices will raise Indonesia’s oil import costs. Therefore, amid the rupiah’s weakening against the US dollar and the ongoing upward trend in global oil prices, non-subsidised fuel prices are likely to rise from 1 May 2026. However, the possibility of holding prices steady remains open. This is because the government’s considerations extend beyond economic aspects and import costs to include maintaining stability, protecting public purchasing power, and minimising potential social and political impacts if adjustments are made at an inopportune time. For context, the government did not adjust fuel prices at the start of April as usual. From 1 April 2026, Pertamina’s fuel prices at petrol stations remained the same as in March, for both subsidised and non-subsidised types. However, an adjustment was made mid-month and did not apply to all non-subsidised fuel types. Starting 18 April 2026, Pertamina raised prices for non-subsidised products, with Pertamax Turbo jumping from Rp13,100 per litre to Rp19,400 per litre. Dexlite rose from Rp14,200 per litre to Rp23,600 per litre, while Pertamina Dex increased from Rp14,500 per litre to Rp23,900 per litre. Meanwhile, Pertamax RON 92 stayed at Rp12,300 per litre.