Abstention not significant in 2004 polls: Experts

Kurniawan Hari, The Jakarta Post, Jakarta

Despite high public distrust toward political parties, abstention will not be that significant in the 2004 general elections, political analysts say.

The number of people not exercising their voting rights may be negligible, should political parties improve their performance ahead of the elections.

E. Shobirin Nadj, a researcher with the Institute for Economic and Social Research, Education, and Information (LP3ES), told a discussion here on Friday that those who distrusted political parties could still vote for individuals as this would be possible in the open-list legislative election and the direct presidential election.

"The public's distrust toward political parties does not necessarily mean that the people will abstain in elections, because they can vote for individuals to be legislators," Shobirin said.

Indonesia will hold legislative elections in April 2004 and the two-phased direct presidential elections in June and September 2004.

Abstention is defined as an intentional act by a registered voter not to cast their vote in an election.

Shobirin said the number of people not exercising their voting rights in Indonesia's polls had never exceeded seven percent.

A survey by LP3ES in May revealed that the number of people intending to abstain from voting in the 2004 election was four percent.

The total registered voters in the upcoming elections is about 145 million people.

Analyst J. Kristiadi concurred with Shobirin, but had his own theory.

According to him, the abstention issue was the discourse of people in urban areas, not the people in rural areas. "People in the countryside still have high hopes for the general elections and will cast their votes," said Kristiadi, a researcher with the Centre of Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).

He added that, abstention would not be high because of "mobilization" through the practice of money politics.

"In the New Order era, mass mobilization was conducted by state officials. But, now political leaders use money to mobilize the people," Kristiadi said.

Meanwhile, deputy secretary general of the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI Perjuangan) Pramono Anung Wibowo, also said Friday that abstention would not be significant in 2004 elections because people could vote individuals not political parties.

All three speakers strongly rejected any move to ban abstention.

Shobirin emphasized that abstention was the instrument of the public, to pressure political parties to improve their performance.

"I believe political parties will never reform themselves without public pressure," Shobirin said.

Kristiadi suggested that people supporting abstention prepare the next step to improve democracy. He said political parties would be bankrupted should the number of people abstaining the elections keep getting higher.