ABRI reshuffle may change political equation

ABRI reshuffle may change political equation

By Imanuddin

JAKARTA (JP): The recent reshuffle of the Armed Forces' (ABRI's) top leadership could significantly alter Indonesian politics generally and relations between the military and Moslems in particular, according to two leading political commentators.

However, the University of Indonesia's Nazaruddin Sjamsuddin said over the weekend that it was very unlikely that ABRI would become completely Moslem-oriented, given that its leaders are continually rotated.

Affan Gaffar of Yogyakarta's Gadjah Mada University also said that it would be premature to suggest that the recent changes were made with a view to the 1998 presidential election.

Given the growing political power and influence of the Association of Indonesian Moslem Intellectuals (ICMI), under the leadership of State Minister of Research and Technology B.J. Habibie, any analysis of Indonesian politics must pay careful attention to the relationship between ABRI and Moslems.

ABRI, led by chief Gen. Feisal Tanjung, and ICMI, under Habibie, have managed to strike cordial relations, in contrast to the past when the military and Moslem groups have often viewed each other with suspicion.

The most significant change in last week's ABRI reshuffle was the appointment of Gen. Hartono, a devout Moslem who has the respect of the country's ulemas (Moslem scholars), as the new Army chief of staff. He replaces Gen. Wismoyo Arismunandar.

Hartono is also known as a trusted aide of ABRI chief Gen. Feisal Tanjung. "By choosing Hartono, Feisal expects better coordination between his office and the Army," Nazaruddin said.

The other changes were the appointment of Maj. Gen. Moch. Ma'ruf as ABRI's chief of socio-political affairs and Maj. Gen. Soeyono as chief of general affairs.

Nazaruddin said he detected a shift in emphasis in the military's leadership succession process, with greater emphasis being given to general abilities, as opposed to specialization.

In the past, the post of Army Chief of Staff was exclusively reserved for those who had risen through the Army's ranks, and especially for those with combat experience, he said.

Hartono, who was formerly ABRI's chief of socio-political affairs, is the first chief of staff to be recruited from ABRI headquarters rather than from the Army.

While the impact of Hartono's appointment is open to various predictions, the reason for his appointment by President Soeharto is similarly difficult to ascertain.

Lt. Gen. (ret.) Sayidiman Suryohadiprojo, a prominent military thinker and former governor of the National Defense Institute, declined to speculate on the "why" but stressed that Hartono had all the necessary qualifications for the job.

"It is the President's prerogative to determine who is suitable for such a political post," Sayidiman said.

Affan said the changes proved, if anything, that the succession within ABRI has become even more unpredictable.

The appointment of Hartono, he said, defied all earlier predictions because Hartono, although he was a year younger than his predecessor, was Wismoyo's senior in the Army.

For this reason, Affan warned against attempts to link the reshuffle with the 1998 presidential election.

He predicted that, given their age, Feisal and Hartono would only hold their positions for two more years, which means neither man would be around during the crucial election year. "But then again, the President, if he wishes to, could always extend their tour of active duty beyond the mandatory retirement age."

"One thing is for sure: whoever commands ABRI controls the country's political system," he added.

He also said that the cordial relations between ABRI and the Moslem groups could always change.

Nazaruddin warned against expecting ABRI to change its approach to the Moslem groups.

"The Army has two fixed and established doctrines: Pancasila (the state ideology) and the Sapta Marga (the soldier's oath). These are constant."

Nazaruddin said that more than anything, Hartono's religious piety would be have a positive effect on his leadership of the Army. "It will be a force to restrain him from doing bad deeds."