A new breed of 'spin doctor'

A new breed of 'spin doctor'

M. Taufiqurrahman, The Jakarta Post, Jakarta

Late last year, on the eve of the presidential election runoff, a
Jakarta-based polling institute predicted Susilo Bambang
Yudhoyono would beat the incumbent, Megawati Soekarnoputri, in a
landslide, by 53 percent to 34 percent.

Over one month later, the people at the polling institute, the
Indonesian Survey Institute (LSI), rejoiced because the official
results of the runoff proved their pre-election prediction
correct, more or less; the General Elections Commission declared
Susilo the winner with 61 percent of the vote.

Little did the LSI realize that its success in predicting the
outcome of the 2004 presidential election runoff would help open
the way for polling institutes to play a much larger role in
elections than just taking opinion polls.

Thanks to the much-publicized accuracy of the LSI's and other
pollsters' surveys, politicians contesting regional elections now
come to these polling institutes in droves, seeking help to
measure their appeal with voters.

There were also requests from the candidates to help them
garner more votes, based on the findings of the opinion polls,
prompting a number of pollsters to make the change to full-
fledged spin doctors.

Among the new breed of spin doctors that cropped up after the
2004 presidential election was the Indonesian Survey Circle
(LSI), a research institute that advises politicians on how to
win elections. This new LSI was set up by former members of the
Indonesian Research Institute.

The deputy chairman of the new LSI, Muhammad Qodari, told The
Jakarta Post his organization offered a wide range of services to
local politicians, from conducting opinion polls and drawing up
comprehensive campaign strategies, to preventing vote rigging by
using a method known as parallel vote tabulation.

Qodari said local politicians had come to realize they needed
to equip themselves with scientifically tested methods to win the
elections, as opposed to traditional practices such as seeking
counsel from shamans or counting on voters' irrational allegiance
to political parties.

"More and more candidates have come to us ... and with over
500 regional elections to be held within the next five years
there will be a huge market for us," Qodari said. He estimated
that in the next five years there would be an average of 100
regional elections each year.

A total of 433 regencies and municipalities, as well as 30
provinces, are scheduled to hold elections over the next five
years. The total number of regional elections is expected to rise
due to the establishment of new regencies.

Since nationwide regional elections kicked off this July, the
new LSI has accurately predicted the outcomes in a number of
regencies and provinces.

LSI was one of only a few pollsters that predicted the
election victory of the incumbent regent in Kutai Kertanegara,
Syaukani, despite his being dogged by corruption allegations.

It also has briefed a number of Golkar Party politicians,
including party leader Vice President Jusuf Kalla, on how to
change the party's method of selecting candidates for regional
heads from U.S.-style conventions to a method that relies more on
opinion polls.

In February, the LSI struck a deal with Golkar on consulting
the party in regional elections.

Golkar has set a target of winning 60 percent of regional
elections nationwide.

Despite the LSI's close alliance with Golkar, Qodari said that
he, as well as institute chairman Denny Januar Ali, remained as
nonpartisan as ever.

Denny was a spokesman for Susilo soon after the former general
was declared the winner of the presidential runoff, but his
position in Susilo's inner circle now is anybody's guess.

Qodari believes that what LSI is doing for Golkar and other
political parties is part of a greater effort to strengthen the
country's fledgling democracy.

"In a democracy, there has to be a mechanism by which the
people's aspirations can be measured, and opinion polls are one
such mechanism available. We base our work on the people's voice,
so political leaders better take notice," he said.

In its self-proclaimed role as guardian of the people's
opinions, the LSI has continued to conduct opinion polls to
determine the approval rate for Susilo's administration.

An opinion poll published in August found that despite the
poor showing of his Cabinet, 64.7 percent of respondents thought
Susilo's administration had done a satisfactory job.

Coinciding with the one-year anniversary of the Susilo
administration this week, the LSI published a new opinion poll
conducted soon after fuel prices were raised on Oct. 1.

That poll found Susilo's approval rate at a new low, with only
52.4 percent of respondents satisfied with his administration.

"Should the Susilo government fail to find new ways to
mitigate the adverse impacts of the fuel price hike, it is likely
that his popularity will soon tumble further," Qodari said.

As for the 31-year-old Qodari, the job of measuring the voice
of the people was the type of job he wanted as soon as he
completed his master's at the University of Essex in 2002.

Qodari, who earned an undergraduate degree in psychology from
the University of Indonesia, studied political behavior at Essex
on a scholarship from the British government.

He was awarded the scholarship during his brief spell at the
Institute for the Free Flow of Information, a Jakarta-based media
research institute.

Upon his return from Britain, the father of one briefly worked
at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, before
joining the Indonesian Survey Institute in the early 2004.

"I was anxious to apply theories that I had learned about the
behavior of voters. Measuring voter behavior was something very
common in the West but something very new for Indonesia," he
said.