A new breed of 'spin doctor'

M. Taufiqurrahman, The Jakarta Post, Jakarta

Late last year, on the eve of the presidential election runoff, a Jakarta-based polling institute predicted Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono would beat the incumbent, Megawati Soekarnoputri, in a landslide, by 53 percent to 34 percent.

Over one month later, the people at the polling institute, the Indonesian Survey Institute (LSI), rejoiced because the official results of the runoff proved their pre-election prediction correct, more or less; the General Elections Commission declared Susilo the winner with 61 percent of the vote.

Little did the LSI realize that its success in predicting the outcome of the 2004 presidential election runoff would help open the way for polling institutes to play a much larger role in elections than just taking opinion polls.

Thanks to the much-publicized accuracy of the LSI's and other pollsters' surveys, politicians contesting regional elections now come to these polling institutes in droves, seeking help to measure their appeal with voters.

There were also requests from the candidates to help them garner more votes, based on the findings of the opinion polls, prompting a number of pollsters to make the change to full- fledged spin doctors.

Among the new breed of spin doctors that cropped up after the 2004 presidential election was the Indonesian Survey Circle (LSI), a research institute that advises politicians on how to win elections. This new LSI was set up by former members of the Indonesian Research Institute.

The deputy chairman of the new LSI, Muhammad Qodari, told The Jakarta Post his organization offered a wide range of services to local politicians, from conducting opinion polls and drawing up comprehensive campaign strategies, to preventing vote rigging by using a method known as parallel vote tabulation.

Qodari said local politicians had come to realize they needed to equip themselves with scientifically tested methods to win the elections, as opposed to traditional practices such as seeking counsel from shamans or counting on voters' irrational allegiance to political parties.

"More and more candidates have come to us ... and with over 500 regional elections to be held within the next five years there will be a huge market for us," Qodari said. He estimated that in the next five years there would be an average of 100 regional elections each year.

A total of 433 regencies and municipalities, as well as 30 provinces, are scheduled to hold elections over the next five years. The total number of regional elections is expected to rise due to the establishment of new regencies.

Since nationwide regional elections kicked off this July, the new LSI has accurately predicted the outcomes in a number of regencies and provinces.

LSI was one of only a few pollsters that predicted the election victory of the incumbent regent in Kutai Kertanegara, Syaukani, despite his being dogged by corruption allegations.

It also has briefed a number of Golkar Party politicians, including party leader Vice President Jusuf Kalla, on how to change the party's method of selecting candidates for regional heads from U.S.-style conventions to a method that relies more on opinion polls.

In February, the LSI struck a deal with Golkar on consulting the party in regional elections.

Golkar has set a target of winning 60 percent of regional elections nationwide.

Despite the LSI's close alliance with Golkar, Qodari said that he, as well as institute chairman Denny Januar Ali, remained as nonpartisan as ever.

Denny was a spokesman for Susilo soon after the former general was declared the winner of the presidential runoff, but his position in Susilo's inner circle now is anybody's guess.

Qodari believes that what LSI is doing for Golkar and other political parties is part of a greater effort to strengthen the country's fledgling democracy.

"In a democracy, there has to be a mechanism by which the people's aspirations can be measured, and opinion polls are one such mechanism available. We base our work on the people's voice, so political leaders better take notice," he said.

In its self-proclaimed role as guardian of the people's opinions, the LSI has continued to conduct opinion polls to determine the approval rate for Susilo's administration.

An opinion poll published in August found that despite the poor showing of his Cabinet, 64.7 percent of respondents thought Susilo's administration had done a satisfactory job.

Coinciding with the one-year anniversary of the Susilo administration this week, the LSI published a new opinion poll conducted soon after fuel prices were raised on Oct. 1.

That poll found Susilo's approval rate at a new low, with only 52.4 percent of respondents satisfied with his administration.

"Should the Susilo government fail to find new ways to mitigate the adverse impacts of the fuel price hike, it is likely that his popularity will soon tumble further," Qodari said.

As for the 31-year-old Qodari, the job of measuring the voice of the people was the type of job he wanted as soon as he completed his master's at the University of Essex in 2002.

Qodari, who earned an undergraduate degree in psychology from the University of Indonesia, studied political behavior at Essex on a scholarship from the British government.

He was awarded the scholarship during his brief spell at the Institute for the Free Flow of Information, a Jakarta-based media research institute.

Upon his return from Britain, the father of one briefly worked at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, before joining the Indonesian Survey Institute in the early 2004.

"I was anxious to apply theories that I had learned about the behavior of voters. Measuring voter behavior was something very common in the West but something very new for Indonesia," he said.